JAX · Bye 7
Brian Thomas Jr.
LMD WR Tier 9 for Week 9 · 3.3 projected Standard points · WR100 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.3 points this week, WR Tier 9. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.9 - 8.2 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 8% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 9
2.9 - 3.7 projected points
Rest of season
WR100
220th by projected points
Projected
3.3
week 9, Standard
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 8% at WR
Movement
↓ 7
WR71 in Week 8, WR78 now
Should you start Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Brian Thomas Jr. WR78 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 8% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR78 vs WR46 -32
LMD has him WR78. The fantasy draft market has him WR46, 32 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline and our projection is lower than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.30 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.20 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.45 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.47 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Why Jaguars may still be reluctant to trade Brian Thomas Jr.
Yahoo Sports ·
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Jaguars' Brian Thomas Jr. linked with Chiefs, Steelers teams that could also acquire Colts' Josh Downs
yardbarker.com ·
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Another invisible performance from Brian Thomas Jr.
Yahoo Sports ·
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Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Jakobi Meyers vs. Brian Thomas Jr.
Sports Illustrated ·
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NFL Trade Rumors, Predictions for Derrick Henry, Brian Thomas Jr. and Jessie Bates III
Bleacher Report ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Brian Thomas Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Brian Thomas Jr. has averaged -1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 4.7 | 4.0 | -0.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 3.8 | 4.0 | +0.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 6.2 | 0.8 | -5.4 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 4.4 | 7.7 | +3.3 |
| Wk 5 | vs PHI | 4.4 | 0.0 | -4.4 |
| Wk 6 | vs HOU | 3.7 | 0.0 | -3.7 |
| Wk 8 | vs IND | 3.4 | 7.2 | +3.8 |
| Wk 9 | @ BAL | 3.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR35. For the rest of the season LMD has him 65 spots lower, at WR100.
Preseason market: WR35 · ADP 69.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR100 −65
LMD has him 65 spots lower than his WR35 draft price.
Week 9
WR78 −43
LMD has him 43 spots lower than his WR35 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR35 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 28.8 points this season, WR100. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.3 a game over 10.101 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
3.3 / game
Over 10.101 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brian Thomas Jr. #61 in 1QB and #66 in Superflex, WR21 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#61
WR21 · tier 16 · of 300
Superflex
#66
WR21 · tier 13 · of 307
- Last season 114.8 pts 8.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.04
pick 76.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.04
half of simulations take him by pick 76
Draft range
6.03 - 8.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.04 in 54% of simulations
Pick 76 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 8.09, where he is available in 5% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 7.04 54% · 8.09 5% · 9.04 1% · 10.09 <1% · 11.04 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.10 and 7.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.02 | 61% |
| 7.03 | 58% |
| 7.04 | 54% |
| 7.05 | 50% |
| 7.06 | 46% |
| 7.07 | 42% |
| 7.08 | 38% |
| 7.09 | 35% |
| 7.10 | 31% |
| 7.11 | 27% |
| 7.12 | 24% |
| 8.01 | 21% |
| 8.02 | 18% |
| 8.03 | 15% |
| 8.04 | 13% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.03-6.04 | 3% | 273 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 6% | 615 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 7% | 704 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 8% | 764 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 8% | 762 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 8% | 772 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 7% | 741 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 7% | 736 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 6% | 645 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · HOU 3%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 3%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brian Thomas Jr. was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.