LAC · Bye 7
Quentin Johnston
LMD WR Tier 8 for Week 9 · 4.6 projected Standard points · WR58 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.6 points this week, WR Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.5 - 9.9 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 14% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 8
3.9 - 5.0 projected points
Rest of season
WR58
131st by projected points
Projected
4.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 14% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR57 in Week 8
Should you start Quentin Johnston in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Quentin Johnston WR57 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 14% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.28 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Quentin Johnston by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Quentin Johnston has averaged -1.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 4.7 | 1.7 | -3.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 4.3 | 1.4 | -2.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 5.3 | 4.0 | -1.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 5.2 | 4.0 | -1.2 |
| Wk 5 | vs DEN | 5.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 6 | @ KC | 5.0 | 5.7 | +0.7 |
| Wk 8 | @ LAR | 4.5 | 3.7 | -0.8 |
| Wk 9 | vs HOU | 4.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR38. For the rest of the season LMD has him 20 spots lower, at WR58.
Preseason market: WR38 · ADP 78.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR58 −20
LMD has him 20 spots lower than his WR38 draft price.
Week 9
WR57 −19
LMD has him 19 spots lower than his WR38 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR38 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 46.8 points this season, WR58. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 4.5 a game over 10.115 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
4.5 / game
Over 10.115 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Quentin Johnston #76 in 1QB and #78 in Superflex, WR28 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#76
WR28 · tier 19 · of 300
Superflex
#78
WR28 · tier 15 · of 307
- Last season 145.7 pts 11.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 85% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.09
pick 92.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.09
half of simulations take him by pick 93
Draft range
6.11 - 10.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.09 in 51% of simulations
Pick 93 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 9.04, where he is available in 35% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 8.09 51% · 9.04 35% · 10.09 6% · 11.04 2% · 12.09 <1% · 13.04 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.09 and 9.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.07 | 56% |
| 8.08 | 54% |
| 8.09 | 51% |
| 8.10 | 49% |
| 8.11 | 47% |
| 8.12 | 44% |
| 9.01 | 42% |
| 9.02 | 40% |
| 9.03 | 37% |
| 9.04 | 35% |
| 9.05 | 32% |
| 9.06 | 30% |
| 9.07 | 28% |
| 9.08 | 26% |
| 9.09 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.11-6.12 | 2% | 223 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 3% | 285 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 479 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05 | 1% | 118 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Quentin Johnston was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Quentin Johnston was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.