BAL · Bye 13
Zay Flowers
LMD WR Tier 4 for Week 9 · 8.1 projected Standard points · WR25 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.1 points this week, WR Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.8 - 15.6 points. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 35% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 4
8.0 - 8.9 projected points
Rest of season
WR25
63rd by projected points
Projected
8.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
19%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 35% at WR
Movement
↓ 18
WR5 in Week 8, WR23 now
Should you start Zay Flowers in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Zay Flowers WR23 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 35% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR23 vs WR11 -12
LMD has him WR23. The fantasy draft market has him WR11, 12 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.39 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-2.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Baltimore can't get Zay Flowers going in Week 9
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Josh Jacobs, Zay Flowers, And More Fantasy Football Sell-High Trade Candidates For Week 9
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Parker Washington vs. Zay Flowers
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Ravens must make Zay Flowers a priority with Joe Fagnano starting
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy football Week 9 panic meter: Zay Flowers, Ashton Jeanty and more
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Zay Flowers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Zay Flowers has averaged +2.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 6.9 | 21.0 | +14.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 7.4 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 7.1 | 10.4 | +3.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 7.0 | 17.8 | +10.8 |
| Wk 5 | @ ATL | 9.4 | 6.6 | -2.8 |
| Wk 6 | @ CLE | 10.6 | 6.7 | -3.9 |
| Wk 7 | vs CIN | 9.5 | 19.7 | +10.2 |
| Wk 8 | @ BUF | 11.8 | 0.0 | -11.8 |
| Wk 9 | vs JAX | 8.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR12. For the rest of the season LMD has him 13 spots lower, at WR25.
Preseason market: WR12 · ADP 23.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR25 −13
LMD has him 13 spots lower than his WR12 draft price.
Week 9
WR23 −11
LMD has him 11 spots lower than his WR12 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR12 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 69.7 points this season, WR25. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 36% of simulated seasons. That is 8.1 a game over 8.998 remaining games.
Per game
8.1 / game
Over 8.998 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 36%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Zay Flowers #25 in 1QB and #33 in Superflex, WR8 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#25
WR8 · tier 10 · of 300
Superflex
#33
WR8 · tier 8 · of 307
- Last season 200.3 pts 11.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 27% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.03
pick 26.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.02
half of simulations take him by pick 26
Draft range
2.09 - 3.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.02 in 55% of simulations
Pick 26 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 4.11, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 3.02 55% · 4.11 <1% · 5.02 <1% · 6.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.12 and 3.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.12 | 75% |
| 3.01 | 65% |
| 3.02 | 55% |
| 3.03 | 47% |
| 3.04 | 39% |
| 3.05 | 31% |
| 3.06 | 24% |
| 3.07 | 18% |
| 3.08 | 13% |
| 3.09 | 10% |
| 3.10 | 8% |
| 3.11 | 6% |
| 3.12 | 5% |
| 4.01 | 4% |
| 4.02 | 3% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | 4% | 353 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 9% | 855 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 10% | 1032 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 9% | 930 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 9% | 881 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 8% | 814 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 8% | 767 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 7% | 721 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 6% | 594 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Zay Flowers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chris Olave WR · NO 7%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 7%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 7%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 7%
Usually taken just after
- Chris Olave WR · NO 7%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 7%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 6%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 6%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Zay Flowers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.