NYG · Bye 8
Malik Nabers
LMD WR Tier 3 for Week 9 · 10.6 projected Standard points · WR7 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.6 points this week, WR Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 3.5 - 20.7 points. Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 49% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 3
9.7 - 10.6 projected points
Rest of season
WR7
26th by projected points
Projected
10.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
32%
Top 3: 10% · Top 24: 49% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 8
Should you start Malik Nabers in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Malik Nabers WR7 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 49% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.23 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.08 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Ballin' with backups: Malik Nabers is most QB proof WR since Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins
CBS Sports ·
-
Malik Nabers putting up superstar-level numbers the Giants need
nypost.com ·
-
Giants WR Malik Nabers Reveals Game Status After Missing Practice
newsweek.com ·
-
Giants WR Malik Nabers eases injury concerns with 3-word declaration
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Malik Nabers’ knee sidelines NFC offensive player of month from practice
troyrecord.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Malik Nabers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Malik Nabers has averaged +2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 6.7 | 6.9 | +0.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAR | 7.7 | 0.1 | -7.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 8.0 | 2.6 | -5.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs ARI | 7.4 | 17.2 | +9.8 |
| Wk 5 | @ WAS | 7.7 | 18.1 | +10.4 |
| Wk 6 | vs NO | 10.6 | 16.5 | +5.9 |
| Wk 7 | @ HOU | 10.1 | 11.1 | +1.0 |
| Wk 9 | @ PHI | 10.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR16. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots higher, at WR7.
Preseason market: WR16 · ADP 32.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR7 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his WR16 draft price.
Week 9
WR7 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his WR16 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 101.8 points this season, WR7. Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 63% · Top 24: 90% of simulated seasons. That is 10.6 a game over 9.978 remaining games.
Per game
10.6 / game
Over 9.978 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 63% · Top 24: 90%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Malik Nabers #111 in 1QB and #115 in Superflex, WR46 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#111
WR46 · tier 25 · of 300
Superflex
#115
WR46 · tier 20 · of 307
- Last season 48.1 pts 12.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 48% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 30% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.12
pick 35.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.12
half of simulations take him by pick 36
Draft range
3.04 - 4.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.12 in 55% of simulations
Pick 36 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 4.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 3.12 55% · 4.01 48% · 5.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.08 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.10 | 67% |
| 3.11 | 62% |
| 3.12 | 55% |
| 4.01 | 48% |
| 4.02 | 41% |
| 4.03 | 34% |
| 4.04 | 27% |
| 4.05 | 20% |
| 4.06 | 14% |
| 4.07 | 9% |
| 4.08 | 6% |
| 4.09 | 3% |
| 4.10 | 2% |
| 4.11 | 1% |
| 4.12 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.04 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 6% | 645 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 7% | 698 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 7% | 718 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 7% | 732 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 7% | 685 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 7% | 701 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 6% | 601 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Malik Nabers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 6%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 6%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6%
Usually taken just after
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 6%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Malik Nabers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.