GB · Bye 11
Matthew Golden
LMD WR Tier 3 for Week 9 · 10.0 projected Standard points · WR14 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.0 points this week, WR Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 3.4 - 18.9 points. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 29% · Top 24: 47% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 3
9.7 - 10.6 projected points
Rest of season
WR14
41st by projected points
Projected
10.0
week 9, Standard
Top 12
29%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 47% at WR
Movement
↑ 25
WR34 in Week 8, WR9 now
Should you start Matthew Golden in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Matthew Golden WR9 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 47% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.37 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.38 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.09 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Week 8 TNF Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Christian Watson vs. Matthew Golden
Sports Illustrated ·
-
STATUS
Matthew Golden is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Packers’ Jordan Love upgraded on injury report while Christian Watson, Matthew Golden still hampered
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Packers injury updates on Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jordan Love
Yahoo Sports ·
-
NFC Notes: Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, Bears, Packers, Vikings
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Matthew Golden by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Matthew Golden has averaged +3.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 5.5 | 5.8 | +0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 7.5 | 16.0 | +8.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 8.3 | 8.7 | +0.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs CHI | 8.2 | 14.3 | +6.1 |
| Wk 6 | vs DAL | 9.6 | 16.4 | +6.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ DET | 10.3 | 3.9 | -6.4 |
| Wk 8 | vs CAR | 6.2 | 13.9 | +7.7 |
| Wk 9 | @ NE | 10.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR44. For the rest of the season LMD has him 30 spots higher, at WR14.
Preseason market: WR44 · ADP 92.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR14 +30
LMD has him 30 spots higher than his WR44 draft price.
Week 9
WR9 +35
LMD has him 35 spots higher than his WR44 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR44 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 87.5 points this season, WR14. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 72% of simulated seasons. That is 10.1 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
10.1 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 72%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Matthew Golden #168 in 1QB and #174 in Superflex, WR70 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#168
WR70 · tier 39 · of 300
Superflex
#174
WR70 · tier 33 · of 307
- Last season 55.5 pts 4.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 82% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.06
pick 102.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.07
half of simulations take him by pick 103
Draft range
7.07 - 11.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,995 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.07 in 50% of simulations
Pick 103 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 10.06, where he is available in 28% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 9.07 50% · 10.06 28% · 11.07 7% · 12.06 1% · 13.07 <1% · 14.06 <1% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.06 and 10.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.05 | 54% |
| 9.06 | 52% |
| 9.07 | 50% |
| 9.08 | 48% |
| 9.09 | 46% |
| 9.10 | 44% |
| 9.11 | 42% |
| 9.12 | 40% |
| 10.01 | 38% |
| 10.02 | 36% |
| 10.03 | 34% |
| 10.04 | 32% |
| 10.05 | 30% |
| 10.06 | 28% |
| 10.07 | 26% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.07-7.08 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 2% | 242 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 4% | 394 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 404 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 3% | 338 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03 | 1% | 127 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9995 simulations in which Matthew Golden was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jared Goff QB · DET 2%
- Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Brian Robinson Jr. RB · ATL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brian Robinson Jr. RB · ATL 2%
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Matthew Golden was selected in 9995 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.