TB · Bye 10
Emeka Egbuka
LMD WR Tier 5 for Week 9 · 7.4 projected Standard points · WR32 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.4 points this week, WR Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.9 - 15.3 points. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 32% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 9
WR Tier 5
7.1 - 7.5 projected points
Rest of season
WR32
77th by projected points
Projected
7.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
16%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 32% at WR
Movement
↓ 5
WR21 in Week 8, WR26 now
Should you start Emeka Egbuka in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Emeka Egbuka WR26 for Week 9, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 32% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.38 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.22 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.23 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Tristan Wirfs to play Sunday, Emeka Egbuka questionable
NBC Sports ·
-
Emeka Egbuka fully practices Thursday
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Emeka Egbuka Update: Was He At Buccaneers' Thursday Practice?
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Buccaneers’ Emeka Egbuka injury update will catch fantasy football managers’ attention
clutchpoints.com ·
-
Todd Bowles delivers Emeka Egbuka injury news after another missed Buccaneers practice
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Emeka Egbuka by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Emeka Egbuka has averaged +0.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 7.0 | 6.3 | -0.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 6.5 | 7.3 | +0.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 7.4 | 6.2 | -1.2 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 6.5 | 1.3 | -5.2 |
| Wk 5 | @ DAL | 5.9 | 11.2 | +5.3 |
| Wk 6 | vs PIT | 6.7 | 10.8 | +4.1 |
| Wk 7 | @ CAR | 8.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 8 | vs ATL | 7.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | @ CHI | 7.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR18. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots lower, at WR32.
Preseason market: WR18 · ADP 34.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR32 −14
LMD has him 14 spots lower than his WR18 draft price.
Week 9
WR26 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his WR18 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR18 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 66.0 points this season, WR32. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 30% of simulated seasons. That is 7.4 a game over 8.745 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.4 / game
Over 8.745 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 30%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Emeka Egbuka #27 in 1QB and #35 in Superflex, WR9 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#27
WR9 · tier 10 · of 300
Superflex
#35
WR9 · tier 9 · of 307
- Last season 164.2 pts 9.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.12
pick 36.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.01
half of simulations take him by pick 37
Draft range
3.04 - 4.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.01 in 51% of simulations
Pick 37 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 5.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 4.01 51% · 5.12 <1% · 6.01 <1% · 7.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.08 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.11 | 64% |
| 3.12 | 57% |
| 4.01 | 51% |
| 4.02 | 44% |
| 4.03 | 37% |
| 4.04 | 30% |
| 4.05 | 23% |
| 4.06 | 17% |
| 4.07 | 13% |
| 4.08 | 9% |
| 4.09 | 7% |
| 4.10 | 5% |
| 4.11 | 4% |
| 4.12 | 3% |
| 5.01 | 2% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.04 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 5% | 536 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 6% | 589 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 6% | 624 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 6% | 620 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 7% | 687 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 7% | 684 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 7% | 734 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 7% | 678 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 330 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Emeka Egbuka was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 6%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 5%
- Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 5%
Usually taken just after
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 6%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 5%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Emeka Egbuka was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.