NFL · 2026 Week 9
Week 9 Standard TE Rankings
Standard, 1QB · 92 players projected · updated November 5, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 9 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
How the tiers work
Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.
The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.
Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.
A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.
A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.
Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 74% of TEs inside the top 12 through Week 8 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 TE-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stands out this week
92 TEs in 11 tiers for Week 9. Brock Bowers leads at 10.7 projected points.
Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.
| Pos | Player | Proj | Outcome profile | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 10.7 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Brock BowersLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 27% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE10 at the median, TE3 - TE21 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 27%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 84% 80% range: 3.1 - 21.4 |
10.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 27% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE10 at the median, TE3 - TE21 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE28 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 2 8.8 - 9.1 projected points | |||||||
| TE | George KittleSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE4 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 76% 80% range: 2.5 - 18.5 |
9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE4 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE33 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Trey McBrideARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE31 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 77% 80% range: 2.6 - 17.6 |
8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE31 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 3 7.6 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Colston LovelandCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 2.2 - 16.0 |
7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE35 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Isaiah LikelyNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE6 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 67% 80% range: 2.1 - 15.6 |
7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE6 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 4 6.3 - 6.9 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Sam LaPortaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE7 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 62% 80% range: 1.9 - 14.1 |
6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE7 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE41 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE29 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 64% 80% range: 2.0 - 13.7 |
6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE29 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE39 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tyler WarrenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 59% 80% range: 1.8 - 14.3 |
6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE42 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Travis KelceKCQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 59% 80% range: 1.7 - 14.5 |
6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE43 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tucker KraftGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 40%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE9 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 60% 80% range: 1.9 - 12.8 |
6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 40%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE9 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE39 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 5 5.2 - 5.9 projected points | |||||||
| TE | T.J. HockensonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 53% 80% range: 1.6 - 12.4 |
5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE45 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Dalton KincaidBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE12 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 56% 80% range: 1.8 - 11.9 |
5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE12 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE42 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Dallas GoedertPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 53% 80% range: 1.6 - 12.3 |
5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE44 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 51% 80% range: 1.6 - 11.4 |
5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE46 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Hunter HenryNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE12 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 48% 80% range: 1.3 - 12.2 |
5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE12 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Michael MayerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE13 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 51% 80% range: 1.6 - 11.1 |
5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE13 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE44 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Brenton StrangeJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE13 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 49% 80% range: 1.5 - 11.3 |
5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE13 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE47 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Dalton SchultzHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE14 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47% 80% range: 1.4 - 10.9 |
5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE14 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 6 4.4 - 5.1 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Greg DulcichMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE14 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 47% 80% range: 1.5 - 10.8 |
5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE14 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE48 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Mike GesickiCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE13 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 41% 80% range: 1.2 - 11.0 |
5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE13 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE56 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | AJ BarnerSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 42% 80% range: 1.3 - 10.4 |
4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Juwan JohnsonNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE14 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 42% 80% range: 1.3 - 10.4 |
4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE14 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Chig OkonkwoWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE15 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 43% 80% range: 1.3 - 10.5 |
4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE15 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Mason TaylorNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE32 at the median, TE14 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 38% 80% range: 0.9 - 10.5 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE32 at the median, TE14 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE63 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tyler HigbeeLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE17 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 40% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.8 |
4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE17 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tanner ConnerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE33 at the median, TE17 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 36% 80% range: 0.9 - 10.3 |
4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE33 at the median, TE17 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 7 3.3 - 3.8 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Oronde Gadsden IILAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE35 at the median, TE21 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 31% 80% range: 1.0 - 8.9 |
3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE35 at the median, TE21 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE62 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Colby ParkinsonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE20 - TE55 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 30% 80% range: 0.7 - 9.0 |
3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE20 - TE55 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE73 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Eli RaridonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE36 at the median, TE21 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 29% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.8 |
3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE36 at the median, TE21 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE64 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Jake FergusonDALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE20 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 29% 80% range: 0.8 - 8.9 |
3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE20 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE73 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Darren WallerCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE24 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.4 |
3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE24 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE66 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Mark AndrewsBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE24 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.3 |
3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE24 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE64 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Cade OttonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE35 at the median, TE24 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 1.0 - 8.0 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE35 at the median, TE24 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE61 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 8 2.6 - 3.1 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Kenyon SadiqNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE54 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 0.8 - 8.1 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE54 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Will MalloryIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE27 - TE60 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.9 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE27 - TE60 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE76 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tommy TrembleCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE27 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.9 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE27 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE70 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Evan EngramDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE28 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 21% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.8 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE28 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE69 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Brevyn Spann-FordDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE30 - TE59 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 19% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.6 |
2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE30 - TE59 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE73 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Charlie KolarLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE45 at the median, TE30 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 18% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.3 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE45 at the median, TE30 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE76 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 9 2.0 - 2.5 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Davis AllenLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE34 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.4 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE34 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE81 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Elijah HigginsARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE33 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.2 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE33 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE78 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Noah GrayKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE34 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.3 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE34 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE81 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Drew SampleCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE35 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.1 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE35 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Gavin BartholomewMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE34 - TE67 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.0 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE34 - TE67 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE83 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Patrick HerbertLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE54 at the median, TE35 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% 80% range: 0.5 - 7.1 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE54 at the median, TE35 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE93 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Dawson KnoxBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE36 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.1 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE36 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Theo JohnsonNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE37 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 0.5 - 7.0 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE37 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE87 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Josh WhyleGBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE38 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 0.4 - 6.7 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE38 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Jonnu SmithGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE36 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.6 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE36 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Josh CuevasBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE54 at the median, TE39 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.5 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE54 at the median, TE39 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Treyton WelchNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE38 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.7 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE38 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE91 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Foster MoreauHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE45 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 0.4 - 6.9 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE45 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE96 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Mark RedmanGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE39 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 12% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.4 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE39 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Nate BoerkircherJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE60 at the median, TE42 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.8 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE60 at the median, TE42 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 10 1.4 - 1.8 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Ja'Tavion SandersCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE45 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 12% 80% range: 0.3 - 6.4 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE45 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE102 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Mitchell EvansCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE46 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% 80% range: 0.4 - 6.6 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE46 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE94 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Cam GrandyCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE45 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 0.4 - 4.6 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE45 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Drake DabneyGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE46 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 0.3 - 4.8 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE46 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE103 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Noah FantNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE46 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 0.4 - 5.8 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE46 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE96 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Shawn BowmanARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE45 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 0.3 - 5.3 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE45 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Brock WrightDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE47 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.2 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE47 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE97 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Jeremy RuckertNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE65 at the median, TE46 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.8 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE65 at the median, TE46 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE98 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tyler ConklinDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE46 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.4 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE46 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE99 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Zach ErtzPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.3 - 3.3 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Michael TriggDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE48 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE24 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.3 - 3.4 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE48 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE24 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Austin HooperATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE49 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.8 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE49 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE97 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | E.J. JenkinsATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE50 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.9 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE50 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tanner KoziolJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.3 - 3.2 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Matt HibnerBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE50 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.8 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE50 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Nate AdkinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE54 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.3 - 6.3 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE54 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Luke SchoonmakerDALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE53 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE33 - TE110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.5 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE53 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE33 - TE110 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Jack EndriesCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE77 at the median, TE56 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE31 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.6 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE77 at the median, TE56 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE31 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 11 1.0 - 1.3 projected points | |||||||
| TE | Cade StoverHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE83 at the median, TE64 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.2 - 2.8 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE83 at the median, TE64 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE111 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Charlie WoernerATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE57 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.2 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE57 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Tanner ArkinNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE56 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.3 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE56 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Sam RoushCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE55 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.2 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE55 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE103 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Ben YurosekMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE77 at the median, TE57 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.1 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE77 at the median, TE57 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Jackson HawesBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE78 at the median, TE59 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.0 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE78 at the median, TE59 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Luke FarrellSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE60 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.8 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE60 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Ben SimsSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE85 at the median, TE63 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.9 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE85 at the median, TE63 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE116 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Thomas Fidone IINYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE81 at the median, TE61 - TE98 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.8 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE81 at the median, TE61 - TE98 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE110 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Will KacmarekMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE79 at the median, TE59 - TE97 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.9 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE79 at the median, TE59 - TE97 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE110 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Lucas KrullDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE62 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.9 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE62 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Jackson MeeksDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE63 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.8 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE63 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE113 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | CJ DippreTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE61 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.2 - 2.0 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE61 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Stone SmarttNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE83 at the median, TE62 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.8 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE83 at the median, TE62 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Mo Alie-CoxIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE65 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE44 - TE112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.6 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE65 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE44 - TE112 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Stephen CarlsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE69 - TE105 in the middle half, and TE47 - TE117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.5 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE69 - TE105 in the middle half, and TE47 - TE117 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Max KlareLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE66 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE44 - TE116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.6 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE66 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE44 - TE116 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Teagan QuitorianoARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE66 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE43 - TE114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.7 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE66 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE43 - TE114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Adam TrautmanDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE64 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE46 - TE111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.5 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE64 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE46 - TE111 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| TE | Eric SaubertSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE69 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE51 - TE112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.3 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE69 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE51 - TE112 in the middle 80%. | ||||
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 9 TE outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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Tier 1 Brock BowersTE10Brock Bowers is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE10 at the median, TE3 - TE21 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE28 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 George KittleTE14George Kittle is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE4 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE33 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Trey McBrideTE15Trey McBride is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE31 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Colston LovelandTE19Colston Loveland is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE35 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Isaiah LikelyTE18Isaiah Likely is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE6 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Sam LaPortaTE20Sam LaPorta is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE7 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE41 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Harold Fannin Jr.TE20Harold Fannin Jr. is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE29 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE39 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Tyler WarrenTE21Tyler Warren is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE42 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Travis KelceTE21Travis Kelce is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Tucker KraftTE21Tucker Kraft is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE9 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE39 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 T.J. HockensonTE23T.J. Hockenson is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Dalton KincaidTE23Dalton Kincaid is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE12 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE42 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Dallas GoedertTE23Dallas Goedert is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE44 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Kyle Pitts Sr.TE24Kyle Pitts Sr. is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE46 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Hunter HenryTE26Hunter Henry is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE12 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Michael MayerTE24Michael Mayer is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE13 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE44 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Brenton StrangeTE25Brenton Strange is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE13 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Dalton SchultzTE26Dalton Schultz is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE14 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Greg DulcichTE26Greg Dulcich is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE14 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Mike GesickiTE29Mike Gesicki is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE13 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE56 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 AJ BarnerTE28AJ Barner is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Juwan JohnsonTE28Juwan Johnson is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE14 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Chig OkonkwoTE27Chig Okonkwo is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE15 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Mason TaylorTE32Mason Taylor is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE32 at the median, TE14 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE63 in the middle 80%.
Show TE25 - TE36
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Tier 6 Tyler HigbeeTE29Tyler Higbee is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE17 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE53 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Tanner ConnerTE33Tanner Conner is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE33 at the median, TE17 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE67 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Oronde Gadsden IITE35Oronde Gadsden II is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE35 at the median, TE21 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE62 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Colby ParkinsonTE37Colby Parkinson is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE20 - TE55 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Eli RaridonTE36Eli Raridon is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE36 at the median, TE21 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE64 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Jake FergusonTE38Jake Ferguson is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE20 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Darren WallerTE37Darren Waller is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE24 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Mark AndrewsTE37Mark Andrews is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE24 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE64 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Cade OttonTE35Cade Otton is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE35 at the median, TE24 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE61 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 8 Kenyon SadiqTE40Kenyon Sadiq is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE54 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE67 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 8 Will MalloryTE43Will Mallory is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE27 - TE60 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE76 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 8 Tommy TrembleTE41Tommy Tremble is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE27 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE70 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 79% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 55%, sportsbook props for 68%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured November 5, 2026 18:05 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.2, board captured 2026-11-05.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
