DEN · Bye 10
Marvin Mims Jr.
LMD WR Tier 10 for Week 9 · 3.3 projected Half PPR points · WR138 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.3 points this week, WR Tier 10. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.1 - 7.8 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 3% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 10
2.6 - 3.3 projected points
Rest of season
WR138
285th by projected points
Projected
3.3
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 3% at WR
Movement
↓ 22
WR82 in Week 8, WR104 now
Should you start Marvin Mims Jr. in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Marvin Mims Jr. WR104 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 3% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.42 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.60 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.13 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Marvin Mims Jr. is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Jaylen Waddle and Marvin Mims full go; Dondrea Tillman DNP
Yahoo Sports ·
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Marvin Mims, Jaylen Waddle had full participation Wednesday
NBC Sports ·
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Jonah Coleman DNP at practice; both Marvin Mims and RJ Harvey returned
newspub.live ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Marvin Mims Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Marvin Mims Jr. has averaged -0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 3.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | @ SF | 3.1 | 1.5 | -1.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ LAC | 2.6 | 1.9 | -0.7 |
| Wk 6 | vs SEA | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Wk 7 | @ ARI | 3.7 | 6.6 | +2.9 |
| Wk 8 | vs KC | 3.1 | 3.9 | +0.8 |
| Wk 9 | @ CAR | 3.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 27.7 points this season, WR138. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.3 a game over 8.914 remaining games. Down 25 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
3.3 / game
Over 8.914 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Marvin Mims Jr. #190 in 1QB and #195 in Superflex, WR81 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#190
WR81 · tier 42 · of 300
Superflex
#195
WR81 · tier 36 · of 307
- Last season 70.5 pts 4.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 93% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.05
pick 173.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.06
half of simulations take him by pick 174
Draft range
14.12 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,660 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Marvin Mims Jr..
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.06 in 82% of simulations
Pick 174 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.02 and 15.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.04 | 87% |
| 15.05 | 84% |
| 15.06 | 82% |
| 15.07 | 79% |
| 15.08 | 76% |
| 15.09 | 74% |
| 15.10 | 71% |
| 15.11 | 69% |
| 15.12 | 66% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.12 | 3% | 273 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 3% | 265 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 248 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 251 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3660 simulations in which Marvin Mims Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 3%
- Ted Hurst III WR · TB 3%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 3%
Usually taken just after
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- DeMario Douglas WR · NE 3%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 3%
- Zavion Thomas WR · CHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Marvin Mims Jr. was selected in 3660 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.