BUF · Bye 7
Keon Coleman
LMD WR Tier 7 for Week 9 · 5.2 projected Half PPR points · WR62 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.2 points this week, WR Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.7 - 10.6 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 7
5.2 - 6.4 projected points
Rest of season
WR62
136th by projected points
Projected
5.2
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at WR
Movement
↓ 11
WR55 in Week 8, WR66 now
Should you start Keon Coleman in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Keon Coleman WR66 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 10% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR66 vs WR71 +5
LMD has him WR66. The fantasy draft market has him WR71, 5 places lower.
Our projection is higher than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.23 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.35 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.51 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Bills' WR DJ Moore Praises Early-Season Keon Coleman Breakout
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Josh Allen on flicked TD pass to Keon Coleman: "I was just trying to make a play"
NBC Sports ·
-
Bills Mafia road fans surprised, confused Josh Allen on Keon Coleman TD
ESPN ·
-
Josh Palmer Added to Bills' Week 5 Injury Report Joining WRs DJ Moore, Keon Coleman
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Bills may lean on Keon Coleman after DJ Moore misses practice again
wgrz.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Keon Coleman by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Keon Coleman has averaged +3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 2.3 | 0.6 | -1.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 2.4 | 9.3 | +6.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 3.9 | 4.2 | +0.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 4.0 | 20.6 | +16.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ LAR | 7.4 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| Wk 6 | @ LV | 6.6 | 13.9 | +7.3 |
| Wk 8 | vs BAL | 6.0 | 0.9 | -5.1 |
| Wk 9 | @ MIN | 5.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 55.9 points this season, WR62. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 5.2 a game over 9.978 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.2 / game
Over 9.978 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Keon Coleman #131 in 1QB and #134 in Superflex, WR55 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#131
WR55 · tier 29 · of 300
Superflex
#134
WR55 · tier 24 · of 307
- Last season 83.4 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 73% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.09
pick 129.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.07
half of simulations take him by pick 127
Draft range
10.04 - 13.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,984 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Keon Coleman.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.07 in 51% of simulations
Pick 127 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 12.06, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 11.07 51% · 12.06 27% · 13.07 10% · 14.06 3% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.09 and 12.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.05 | 56% |
| 11.06 | 53% |
| 11.07 | 51% |
| 11.08 | 48% |
| 11.09 | 46% |
| 11.10 | 44% |
| 11.11 | 41% |
| 11.12 | 39% |
| 12.01 | 37% |
| 12.02 | 34% |
| 12.03 | 32% |
| 12.04 | 30% |
| 12.05 | 28% |
| 12.06 | 27% |
| 12.07 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 3% | 339 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9984 simulations in which Keon Coleman was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Germie Bernard WR · PIT 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Keon Coleman was selected in 9984 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.