BUF · Bye 7
Keon Coleman
LMD WR58 for Week 3 · 6.7 projected Half PPR points · WR65 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.7 points this week, WR58. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 17% of simulated weeks. Up 37 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR58
114th by projected points
Rest of season
WR65
116th by projected points
Projected
6.7
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
7%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 17% at WR
Movement
↑ 37
WR95 in Week 2, WR58 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.12 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.33 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.30 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
After DJ Moore went down, Keon Coleman stepped up for Bills in win over Lions
twobillsdrive.com ·
-
STATUS
Keon Coleman is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman checks in with wide receiver Khalil Shakir on the play while they line up during first half action at Empower FIeld at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Keon Coleman by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Keon Coleman has averaged +2.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 2.3 | 0.6 | -1.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 2.4 | 9.3 | +6.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 6.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 104.1 points this season, WR65. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
6.6 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Keon Coleman #131 in 1QB and #134 in Superflex, WR55 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#131
WR55 · tier 29 · of 297
Superflex
#134
WR55 · tier 24 · of 303
- Last season 83.4 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 73% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.09
pick 129.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.07
half of simulations take him by pick 127
Draft range
10.04 - 13.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,983 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Keon Coleman.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.07 in 51% of simulations
Pick 127 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 12.06, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 11.07 51% · 12.06 27% · 13.07 10% · 14.06 3% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.09 and 12.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.05 | 56% |
| 11.06 | 53% |
| 11.07 | 51% |
| 11.08 | 49% |
| 11.09 | 46% |
| 11.10 | 44% |
| 11.11 | 41% |
| 11.12 | 39% |
| 12.01 | 37% |
| 12.02 | 35% |
| 12.03 | 32% |
| 12.04 | 30% |
| 12.05 | 28% |
| 12.06 | 27% |
| 12.07 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 544 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 6% | 563 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 6% | 564 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 5% | 450 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 3% | 344 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 300 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 248 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | 2% | 199 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9983 simulations in which Keon Coleman was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Germie Bernard WR · PIT 2%
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Keon Coleman was selected in 9983 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.