NYJ · Bye 13
Adonai Mitchell
LMD WR44 for Week 3 · 9.7 projected Full PPR points · WR47 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.7 points this week, WR44. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 24% of simulated weeks. Up 25 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR44
83rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR47
85th by projected points
Projected
9.7
week 3, Full PPR
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 24% at WR
Movement
↑ 25
WR69 in Week 2, WR44 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-3.30 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.76 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Adonai Mitchell by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Adonai Mitchell has averaged +5.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 5.1 | 9.0 | +3.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 5.8 | 12.3 | +6.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 9.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR78. For the rest of the season LMD has him 31 spots higher, at WR47.
Preseason market: WR78 · ADP 165.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR47 +31
LMD has him 31 spots higher than his WR78 draft price.
Week 3
WR44 +34
LMD has him 34 spots higher than his WR78 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR78 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 144.8 points this season, WR47. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11% of simulated seasons. That is 9.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 12 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Adonai Mitchell #171 in 1QB and #177 in Superflex, WR72 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#171
WR72 · tier 39 · of 297
Superflex
#177
WR72 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 71.4 pts 4.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 14% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.11
pick 178.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.09 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 465 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Adonai Mitchell.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 98% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | 98% |
| 15.12 | 97% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 3 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 8 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 14 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | <1% | 95 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 1% | 139 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 165 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 465 simulations in which Adonai Mitchell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jake Bates K · DET 4%
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 3%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Adonai Mitchell was selected in 465 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.