NE · Bye 11
A.J. Brown
LMD WR70 rest of season · 77.2 projected Standard points
Reserve list (IR)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 77.2 points this season, WR70. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 4% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 10.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 34 since the Sept. 20 board.
Rest of season
WR70
134th by projected points
Projected
77.2
rest of season, Standard
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 4% at WR
Movement
↓ 34
WR36 on Sept. 20, WR70 now
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
A.J. Brown was ruled IR.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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How Patriots plan to replace A.J. Brown during weeks-long injury absence
troyrecord.com ·
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Patriots cut running back and add receiver to practice squad following A.J. Brown injury
boston.com ·
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What the Patriots are saying about losing A.J. Brown for at least a month
boston.com ·
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With A.J. Brown out of the lineup, what will change for the Patriots’ remaining wide receivers?
bostonglobe.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to A.J. Brown by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game A.J. Brown has averaged -5.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 8.2 | 2.6 | -5.6 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR9. For the rest of the season LMD has him 61 spots lower, at WR70.
Preseason market: WR9 · ADP 19.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR70 −61
LMD has him 61 spots lower than his WR9 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR9 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 77.2 points this season, WR70. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 4% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 10.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 34 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.0 / game
Over 10.825 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 4%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has A.J. Brown #56 in 1QB and #63 in Superflex, WR18 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#56
WR18 · tier 15 · of 297
Superflex
#63
WR18 · tier 12 · of 303
- Last season 181.3 pts 12.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 31% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.04
pick 16.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.05
half of simulations take him by pick 17
Draft range
2.01 - 2.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.05 in 55% of simulations
Pick 17 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 3.08, where he is available in 0% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 2.05 55% · 3.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.03 and 2.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.03 | 82% |
| 2.04 | 71% |
| 2.05 | 55% |
| 2.06 | 35% |
| 2.07 | 18% |
| 2.08 | 9% |
| 2.09 | 4% |
| 2.10 | 2% |
| 2.11 | <1% |
| 2.12 | <1% |
| 3.01 | <1% |
| 3.02 | <1% |
| 3.03 | 0% |
| 3.04 | 0% |
| 3.05 | 0% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.11 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 3% | 273 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 7% | 653 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 10% | 1030 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 17% | 1672 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 20% | 2003 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 16% | 1647 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 9% | 911 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which A.J. Brown was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 15%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 11%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 10%
- Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 10%
Usually taken just after
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 12%
- Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 11%
- Drake London WR · ATL 11%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 9%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
A.J. Brown was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.