HOU · Bye 8
Kayshon Boutte
LMD WR80 for Week 3 · 4.0 projected Standard points · WR99 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.0 points this week, WR80. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 11% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
WR80
151st by projected points
Rest of season
WR99
185th by projected points
Projected
4.0
week 3, Standard
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 11% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR80 in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.10 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Kayshon Boutte's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 151.9 to 142.8 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Kayshon Boutte has averaged -0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 3.1 | 2.1 | -1.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 3.0 | 3.7 | +0.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 4.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR65. For the rest of the season LMD has him 34 spots lower, at WR99.
Preseason market: WR65 · ADP 142.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR99 −34
LMD has him 34 spots lower than his WR65 draft price.
Week 3
WR80 −15
LMD has him 15 spots lower than his WR65 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR65 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 57.7 points this season, WR99. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.1 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 20 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
4.1 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kayshon Boutte #167 in 1QB and #173 in Superflex, WR69 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#167
WR69 · tier 38 · of 297
Superflex
#173
WR69 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 107.6 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 71% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.08
pick 151.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.11
half of simulations take him by pick 143
Draft range
11.11 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,893 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.11 in 67% of simulations
Pick 143 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 13.02, where he is available in 62% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 12.11 67% · 13.02 62% · 14.11 56% · 15.02 53%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.04 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.09 | 72% |
| 12.10 | 70% |
| 12.11 | 67% |
| 12.12 | 64% |
| 13.01 | 62% |
| 13.02 | 62% |
| 13.03 | 62% |
| 13.04 | 62% |
| 13.05 | 61% |
| 13.06 | 61% |
| 13.07 | 61% |
| 13.08 | 61% |
| 13.09 | 61% |
| 13.10 | 61% |
| 13.11 | 61% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.11-11.12 | 4% | 353 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 11 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 23 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 39 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | <1% | 96 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 114 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 1% | 147 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6893 simulations in which Kayshon Boutte was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kyler Murray QB · MIN 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kayshon Boutte was selected in 6893 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.