MIA · Bye 6 · Rookie
Caleb Douglas
LMD WR51 for Week 3 · 7.6 projected Half PPR points · WR58 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.6 points this week, WR51. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 22% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 9 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR51
97th by projected points
Rest of season
WR58
105th by projected points
Projected
7.6
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
10%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 22% at WR
Movement
↓ 9
WR42 in Week 2, WR51 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.30 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.02 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Dolphins To Start Rookie WRs Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Caleb Douglas by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Caleb Douglas has averaged +2.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LV | 4.1 | 11.9 | +7.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 4.9 | 2.9 | -2.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 7.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 114.4 points this season, WR58. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 8% of simulated seasons. That is 7.5 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 2 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 8%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Caleb Douglas #163 in 1QB and #169 in Superflex, WR67 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#163
WR67 · tier 37 · of 297 · rookie 19 of 52
Superflex
#169
WR67 · tier 32 · of 303 · rookie 19 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 75 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.02
pick 158.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.02
half of simulations take him by pick 158
Draft range
12.11 - 15.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,553 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Caleb Douglas.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.02 in 57% of simulations
Pick 158 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 15.11, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 14.02 57% · 15.11 17%
The middle half of simulations take him between 13.05 and 14.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.12 | 63% |
| 14.01 | 60% |
| 14.02 | 57% |
| 14.03 | 55% |
| 14.04 | 52% |
| 14.05 | 50% |
| 14.06 | 48% |
| 14.07 | 46% |
| 14.08 | 43% |
| 14.09 | 41% |
| 14.10 | 39% |
| 14.11 | 37% |
| 14.12 | 35% |
| 15.01 | 33% |
| 15.02 | 31% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.11-12.12 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | 5% | 533 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 5% | 515 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8553 simulations in which Caleb Douglas was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
- Tez Johnson WR · TB 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Malachi Fields WR · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 3%
- Zachariah Branch WR · ATL 2%
- Malachi Fields WR · NYG 2%
- Xavier Legette WR · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Caleb Douglas was selected in 8553 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.