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WR

IND · Bye 13

Josh Downs

LMD WR46 for Week 3 · 6.1 projected Standard points · WR49 rest of season

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 6.1 points this week, WR46. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 22% of simulated weeks. Up 12 since Week 2.

Week 3

WR46

96th by projected points

Rest of season

WR49

96th by projected points

Projected

6.1

week 3, Standard

Top 12

11%

Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 22% at WR

Movement

↑ 12

WR58 in Week 2, WR46 now

Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Josh Downs by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Josh Downs has averaged +2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Josh Downs, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs BAL 3.4 3.7 +0.3
Wk 2 @ KC 3.0 7.2 +4.2
Wk 3 vs HOU 6.1 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR49, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.

Preseason market: WR49 · ADP 102.3

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR49 Even

Level with his WR49 draft price.

Week 3

WR46 +3

LMD has him 3 spots higher than his WR49 draft price.

Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR49 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 92.3 points this season, WR49. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 12% of simulated seasons. That is 6.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 24 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

6.3 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 12%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Josh Downs #115 in 1QB and #120 in Superflex, WR49 at his position. Age 25.

1QB

#115

WR49 · tier 26 · of 297

Superflex

#120

WR49 · tier 21 · of 303

  • Last season 109.4 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 6.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

10.05

pick 112.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

10.05

half of simulations take him by pick 113

Draft range

8.09 - 12.01

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,991 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard also published: Half PPR, Full PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 10.05 in 51% of simulations

Pick 113 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 11.08, where he is available in 18% of simulations.

Slot 8's remaining turns: 10.05 51% · 11.08 18% · 12.05 6% · 13.08 <1% · 14.05 <1% · 15.08 <1%

The middle half of simulations take him between 9.05 and 11.03.

Josh Downs still on the board
PickAvailable
10.03 56%
10.04 53%
10.05 51%
10.06 49%
10.07 46%
10.08 44%
10.09 42%
10.10 39%
10.11 37%
10.12 35%
11.01 32%
11.02 30%
11.03 28%
11.04 25%
11.05 23%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Josh Downs was selected at each pick, 8.09-8.10 through 12.01. He goes earlier than this window in 10%, later in 9%, undrafted in <1%.
Draft position distribution for Josh Downs
PickShare of simulationsCount
8.09-8.103%285 of 10000 simulations
8.11-8.123%319 of 10000 simulations
9.01-9.024%385 of 10000 simulations
9.03-9.044%413 of 10000 simulations
9.05-9.064%407 of 10000 simulations
9.07-9.084%355 of 10000 simulations
9.09-9.104%445 of 10000 simulations
9.11-9.124%387 of 10000 simulations
10.01-10.024%443 of 10000 simulations
10.03-10.045%473 of 10000 simulations
10.05-10.065%482 of 10000 simulations
10.07-10.084%445 of 10000 simulations
10.09-10.105%500 of 10000 simulations
10.11-10.125%472 of 10000 simulations
11.01-11.025%464 of 10000 simulations
11.03-11.044%412 of 10000 simulations
11.05-11.064%389 of 10000 simulations
11.07-11.084%358 of 10000 simulations
11.09-11.103%314 of 10000 simulations
11.11-11.123%258 of 10000 simulations
12.011%130 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9991 simulations in which Josh Downs was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Josh Downs was selected in 9991 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.