IND · Bye 13
Josh Downs
LMD WR Tier 7 for Week 9 · 5.7 projected Standard points · WR54 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.7 points this week, WR Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.9 - 11.7 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 21% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 7
5.3 - 6.1 projected points
Rest of season
WR54
117th by projected points
Projected
5.7
week 9, Standard
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 21% at WR
Movement
↓ 10
WR38 in Week 8, WR48 now
Should you start Josh Downs in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Josh Downs WR48 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 21% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.10 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.10 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Steelers Insider Calls Out Colts' 'Crazy' Asking Price For Josh Downs
yardbarker.com ·
-
Insiders connect Chiefs, Colts WR Josh Downs ahead of trade deadline
Yahoo Sports ·
-
AFC Notes: Josh Downs, Brian Thomas Jr, Anthony Richardson, Colts, Jaguars, Texans
yardbarker.com ·
-
Colts’ Josh Downs speaks up on awkward situation after trade request
Yahoo Sports ·
-
NFL Trade Rumors: Chiefs-Steelers battle for Josh Downs, Bears not done yet and more
fansided.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Josh Downs by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Josh Downs has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 3.4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 3.0 | 7.2 | +4.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 6.7 | 7.7 | +1.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ WAS | 8.7 | 1.6 | -7.1 |
| Wk 5 | @ PIT | 7.0 | 4.7 | -2.3 |
| Wk 6 | vs TEN | 6.4 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| Wk 7 | @ MIN | 6.2 | 1.8 | -4.4 |
| Wk 8 | @ JAX | 5.0 | 8.3 | +3.3 |
| Wk 9 | vs DAL | 5.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR49. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots lower, at WR54.
Preseason market: WR49 · ADP 102.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR54 −5
LMD has him 5 spots lower than his WR49 draft price.
Week 9
WR48 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR49 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR49 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 51.8 points this season, WR54. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 6% of simulated seasons. That is 5.7 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.7 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 6%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Josh Downs #115 in 1QB and #120 in Superflex, WR49 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#115
WR49 · tier 26 · of 300
Superflex
#120
WR49 · tier 21 · of 307
- Last season 109.4 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.05
pick 113.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.05
half of simulations take him by pick 113
Draft range
8.09 - 12.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,989 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.05 in 51% of simulations
Pick 113 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 11.08, where he is available in 18% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 10.05 51% · 11.08 18% · 12.05 6% · 13.08 <1% · 14.05 <1% · 15.08 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.05 and 11.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.03 | 56% |
| 10.04 | 53% |
| 10.05 | 51% |
| 10.06 | 49% |
| 10.07 | 46% |
| 10.08 | 44% |
| 10.09 | 42% |
| 10.10 | 39% |
| 10.11 | 37% |
| 10.12 | 35% |
| 11.01 | 32% |
| 11.02 | 30% |
| 11.03 | 28% |
| 11.04 | 25% |
| 11.05 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.09-8.10 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 401 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 3% | 312 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01 | 1% | 127 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9989 simulations in which Josh Downs was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Josh Downs was selected in 9989 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.