CLE · Bye 11
Jerry Jeudy
LMD WR78 for Week 3 · 4.1 projected Standard points · WR86 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.1 points this week, WR78. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 11% of simulated weeks. Down 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR78
149th by projected points
Rest of season
WR86
160th by projected points
Projected
4.1
week 3, Standard
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 11% at WR
Movement
↓ 6
WR72 in Week 2, WR78 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.38 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.89 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Jerry Jeudy's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 126.1 to 132.5 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jerry Jeudy has averaged -1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ JAX | 3.0 | 2.6 | -0.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ TB | 3.1 | 0.0 | -3.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs CAR | 4.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR59. For the rest of the season LMD has him 27 spots lower, at WR86.
Preseason market: WR59 · ADP 129.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR86 −27
LMD has him 27 spots lower than his WR59 draft price.
Week 3
WR78 −19
LMD has him 19 spots lower than his WR59 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR59 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 64.0 points this season, WR86. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 16 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
4.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jerry Jeudy #148 in 1QB and #151 in Superflex, WR62 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#148
WR62 · tier 33 · of 297
Superflex
#151
WR62 · tier 27 · of 303
- Last season 95.7 pts 5.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.09
pick 140.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.04
half of simulations take him by pick 136
Draft range
10.10 - 15.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,881 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.04 in 58% of simulations
Pick 136 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 13.09, where he is available in 35% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 12.04 58% · 13.09 35% · 14.04 33% · 15.09 16%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.05 and 14.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.02 | 62% |
| 12.03 | 60% |
| 12.04 | 58% |
| 12.05 | 55% |
| 12.06 | 53% |
| 12.07 | 50% |
| 12.08 | 47% |
| 12.09 | 45% |
| 12.10 | 43% |
| 12.11 | 40% |
| 12.12 | 38% |
| 13.01 | 35% |
| 13.02 | 35% |
| 13.03 | 35% |
| 13.04 | 35% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.10-10.12 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.03 | 6% | 565 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 6% | 571 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 6% | 587 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 7% | 661 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 7% | 742 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 8% | 752 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 7% | 738 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 51 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 190 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.03 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8881 simulations in which Jerry Jeudy was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Cam Ward QB · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jerry Jeudy was selected in 8881 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.