SF · Bye 8
Mike Evans
LMD WR Tier 4 for Week 9 · 8.4 projected Standard points · WR16 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.4 points this week, WR Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.2 - 17.3 points. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 37% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 9
WR Tier 4
8.0 - 8.9 projected points
Rest of season
WR16
43rd by projected points
Projected
8.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 37% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 8
Should you start Mike Evans in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Mike Evans WR20 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 37% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.00 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.03 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Mike Evans Being Ruled OUT For Week 9 Would Open The Door For A Fantasy Football Sleeper Returning From Injury
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Fantasy Football Injury Impact: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Are 'Unlikely' To Play in Week 9
Sports Illustrated ·
-
49ers reveal bad news on Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel for Raiders game
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Injury Statuses for 49ers vs. Raiders Updated by GM John Lynch
Bleacher Report ·
-
49ers' Mike Evans unlikely to play vs. Raiders, says John Lynch
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mike Evans by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Mike Evans has averaged +3.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 5.2 | 10.9 | +5.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 5.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 5.1 | 9.4 | +4.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs DEN | 5.1 | 7.6 | +2.5 |
| Wk 5 | @ SEA | 7.5 | 19.3 | +11.8 |
| Wk 6 | vs WAS | 10.1 | 9.4 | -0.7 |
| Wk 7 | @ ATL | 8.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | vs LV | 8.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR30. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots higher, at WR16.
Preseason market: WR30 · ADP 58.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR16 +14
LMD has him 14 spots higher than his WR30 draft price.
Week 9
WR20 +10
LMD has him 10 spots higher than his WR30 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR30 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 84.5 points this season, WR16. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 67% of simulated seasons. That is 8.1 a game over 10.218 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
8.1 / game
Over 10.218 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 67%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mike Evans #198 in 1QB and #206 in Superflex, WR87 at his position. Age 33.
1QB
#198
WR87 · tier 44 · of 300
Superflex
#206
WR87 · tier 37 · of 307
- Last season 69.8 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 68% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.03
pick 62.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.03
half of simulations take him by pick 63
Draft range
5.01 - 7.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.03 in 53% of simulations
Pick 63 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 7.10, where he is available in 2% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 6.03 53% · 7.10 2% · 8.03 <1% · 9.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.08 and 6.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.01 | 61% |
| 6.02 | 58% |
| 6.03 | 53% |
| 6.04 | 49% |
| 6.05 | 45% |
| 6.06 | 41% |
| 6.07 | 36% |
| 6.08 | 32% |
| 6.09 | 28% |
| 6.10 | 24% |
| 6.11 | 20% |
| 6.12 | 17% |
| 7.01 | 14% |
| 7.02 | 11% |
| 7.03 | 9% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.01-5.02 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 6% | 610 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 7% | 692 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 8% | 787 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 9% | 876 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 8% | 848 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 8% | 818 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 8% | 766 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 7% | 670 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Mike Evans was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 3%
Usually taken just after
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mike Evans was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.