NFL · 2026 Week 3
2026 Week 3 Standard RB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published September 24, 2026, 22:49 UTC · first kickoff September 25, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Standard, 1QB · 109 players projected · updated September 24, 2026
See how these rankings performed
Sportsbook prices reached 45 of 145 fantasy-relevant players (31%), so the market half of this board is thinner than a full week's.
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 3 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 54% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 2 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 329 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 3
109 RBs ranked for Week 3. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 17.5 projected points.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Tank BigsbyRB48Our projection is higher than the outside forecast +6 vs. RB54
Behind
- Saquon BarkleyRB14Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 8% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 53% -5 vs. RB9
- MarShawn LloydRB40Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 24% -5 vs. RB35
- Quinshon JudkinsRB25Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 44% -4 vs. RB21
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Jahmyr GibbsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 58%Top 24: 81% |
RB1 | 17.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%. |
| 2 | RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB31 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 59%Top 24: 82% |
RB2 | 17.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB31 in the middle 80%. |
| 3 | RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 23% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 23%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 77% |
RB3 | 17.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 23% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB36 in the middle 80%. |
| 4 | RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB4 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 53%Top 24: 75% |
RB4 | 16.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB4 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB37 in the middle 80%. |
| 5 | RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 52%Top 24: 77% |
RB5 | 15.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%. |
| 6 | RB | James CookBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB13 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 73% |
RB6 | 14.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB13 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%. |
| 7 | RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 69% |
RB7 | 14.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%. |
| 8 | RB | Christian McCaffreySF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB6 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 69% |
RB8 | 14.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB6 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. |
| 9 | RB | De'Von AchaneMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 68% |
RB9 | 13.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. |
| 10 | RB | Chase BrownCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 64% |
RB10 | 12.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB40 in the middle 80%. |
| 11 | RB | Breece HallNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 59% |
RB11 | 11.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB43 in the middle 80%. |
| 12 | RB | D'Andre SwiftCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 55% |
RB12 | 11.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%. |
| 13 | RB | Omarion HamptonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 57% |
RB13 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%. |
| 14 | RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 53% |
RB14 | 11.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%. |
| 15 | RB | Bucky IrvingTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 54% |
RB15 | 10.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB46 in the middle 80%. |
| 16 | RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 53% |
RB16 | 10.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB48 in the middle 80%. |
| 17 | RB | Cam SkatteboNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 52% |
RB17 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB48 in the middle 80%. |
| 18 | RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 49% |
RB18 | 10.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%. |
| 19 | RB | Jeremiyah LoveARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 48% |
RB19 | 9.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%. |
| 20 | RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 46% |
RB20 | 9.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%. |
| 21 | RB | Bhayshul TutenJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47% |
RB21 | 9.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%. |
| 22 | RB | David MontgomeryHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47% |
RB22 | 9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%. |
| 23 | RB | Aaron JonesMINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 43% |
RB23 | 9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB56 in the middle 80%. |
| 24 | RB | Jaylen WarrenPITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 42% |
RB24 | 9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%. |
| 25 | RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 44% |
RB25 | 9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB52 in the middle 80%. |
| 26 | RB | Travis EtienneNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 41% |
RB26 | 8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB56 in the middle 80%. |
| 27 | RB | TreVeyon HendersonNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 40% |
RB27 | 8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB61 in the middle 80%. |
| 28 | RB | Jadarian PriceSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB15 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 40% |
RB28 | 8.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB15 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB57 in the middle 80%. |
| 29 | RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB17 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 39% |
RB29 | 8.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB17 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB53 in the middle 80%. |
| 30 | RB | Tony PollardTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB18 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 35% |
RB30 | 7.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB18 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB59 in the middle 80%. |
| 31 | RB | Kyle MonangaiCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 32% |
RB31 | 7.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB61 in the middle 80%. |
| 32 | RB | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB19 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 34% |
RB32 | 7.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB19 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB59 in the middle 80%. |
| 33 | RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 32% |
RB33 | 7.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB58 in the middle 80%. |
| 34 | RB | Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 30% |
RB34 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB70 in the middle 80%. |
| 35 | RB | Rachaad WhiteWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB22 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 28% |
RB35 | 6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB22 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB61 in the middle 80%. |
| 36 | RB | J.K. DobbinsDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB22 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 28% |
RB36 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB22 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB68 in the middle 80%. |
| 37 | RB | Woody MarksHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB23 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 27% |
RB37 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB23 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB62 in the middle 80%. |
| 38 | RB | Rico DowdlePITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB24 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 25% |
RB38 | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB24 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB69 in the middle 80%. |
| 39 | RB | RJ HarveyDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 25% |
RB39 | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB73 in the middle 80%. |
| 40 | RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB53 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 24% |
RB40 | 5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB53 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB63 in the middle 80%. |
| 41 | RB | Tyjae SpearsTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% |
RB41 | 5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB69 in the middle 80%. |
| 42 | RB | Kaelon BlackSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB26 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% |
RB42 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB26 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB71 in the middle 80%. |
| 43 | RB | Tyler AllgeierARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB26 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 23% |
RB43 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB26 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB65 in the middle 80%. |
| 44 | RB | Kenny GainwellTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 23% |
RB44 | 5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB66 in the middle 80%. |
| 45 | RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB29 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 21% |
RB45 | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB29 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB69 in the middle 80%. |
| 46 | RB | Brian RobinsonATLQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB30 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 19% |
RB46 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB30 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB72 in the middle 80%. |
| 47 | RB | Jonah ColemanDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB31 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 19% |
RB47 | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB31 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB80 in the middle 80%. |
| 48 | RB | Tank BigsbyPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB35 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 16% |
RB48 | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB35 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB76 in the middle 80%. |
| 49 | RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB36 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 15% |
RB49 | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB36 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB71 in the middle 80%. |
| 50 | RB | Braelon AllenNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB38 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 14% |
RB50 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB38 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB78 in the middle 80%. |
| 51 | RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB40 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% |
RB51 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB40 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB76 in the middle 80%. |
| 52 | RB | Najee HarrisNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB57 at the median, RB41 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% |
RB52 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB57 at the median, RB41 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB86 in the middle 80%. |
| 53 | RB | Chris BrooksGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB42 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB53 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB42 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB77 in the middle 80%. |
| 54 | RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB43 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB54 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB43 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB82 in the middle 80%. |
| 55 | RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB45 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB55 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB45 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB82 in the middle 80%. |
| 56 | RB | Samaje PerineCINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB56 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB91 in the middle 80%. |
| 57 | RB | Devin SingletaryNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB57 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%. |
| 58 | RB | Keaton MitchellLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB47 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB58 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB47 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB86 in the middle 80%. |
| 59 | RB | Mike Washington Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB50 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB59 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB50 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB90 in the middle 80%. |
| 60 | RB | Ty JohnsonBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB51 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
RB60 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB51 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB107 in the middle 80%. |
| 61 | RB | Ameer AbdullahJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB61 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB93 in the middle 80%. |
| 62 | RB | DJ GiddensINDQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB55 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
RB62 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB55 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB109 in the middle 80%. |
| 63 | RB | George HolaniSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB54 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB63 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB54 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB100 in the middle 80%. |
| 64 | RB | Kaytron AllenWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB55 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB64 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB55 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB100 in the middle 80%. |
| 65 | RB | Raheim SandersCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB57 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB65 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB57 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB96 in the middle 80%. |
| 66 | RB | Emari DemercadoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB58 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB66 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB58 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB98 in the middle 80%. |
| 67 | RB | Will ShipleyPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB67 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB97 in the middle 80%. |
| 68 | RB | AJ DillonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB57 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 4% |
RB68 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB57 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB96 in the middle 80%. |
| 69 | RB | Patrick RicardNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB59 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB69 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB59 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB103 in the middle 80%. |
| 70 | RB | Ray DavisBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB60 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB70 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB60 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB99 in the middle 80%. |
| 71 | RB | Kyle JuszczykSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB60 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB71 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB60 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB108 in the middle 80%. |
| 72 | RB | Sione VakiDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB60 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 4% |
RB72 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB60 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB100 in the middle 80%. |
| 73 | RB | CJ DonaldsonNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB61 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB73 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB61 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB101 in the middle 80%. |
| 74 | RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB63 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB74 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB63 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB107 in the middle 80%. |
| 75 | RB | Jordan JamesSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB64 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB75 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB64 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB106 in the middle 80%. |
| 76 | RB | Kimani VidalLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB76 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB106 in the middle 80%. |
| 77 | RB | Kene NwangwuNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB64 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB77 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB64 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB113 in the middle 80%. |
| 78 | RB | Kendre MillerNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB65 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB78 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB65 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 79 | RB | Nicholas SingletonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB66 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB79 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB66 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB108 in the middle 80%. |
| 80 | RB | Brashard SmithKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB80 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB110 in the middle 80%. |
| 81 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB68 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB81 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB68 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB109 in the middle 80%. |
| 82 | RB | Amar JohnsonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
RB82 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 83 | RB | Eric GrayCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB83 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 84 | RB | Michael CarterTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB84 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 85 | RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB70 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB85 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB70 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 86 | RB | Dare OgunbowaleLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB86 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 87 | RB | Pierre StrongGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB87 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 88 | RB | Phil MafahNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB88 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 89 | RB | Salvon AhmedCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB89 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 90 | RB | Jaylen WrightMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB90 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 91 | RB | Devin NealNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB91 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 92 | RB | Jarquez HunterMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB92 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 93 | RB | Carlos WashingtonMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB93 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 94 | RB | Jonathan WardBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB94 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 95 | RB | Lew Nichols IIIPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB95 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 96 | RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB74 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB56 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB96 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB74 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB56 - RB113 in the middle 80%. |
| 97 | RB | DeeJay DallasMINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB74 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB97 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB74 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB113 in the middle 80%. |
| 98 | RB | Travis HomerPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB73 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB98 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB73 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 99 | RB | Frank Gore Jr.BUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB75 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB58 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB99 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB75 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB58 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 100 | RB | Corey KinerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB75 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB100 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB75 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB111 in the middle 80%. |
| 101 | RB | Eli HeidenreichPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB79 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB101 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB79 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB113 in the middle 80%. |
| 102 | RB | Bam KnightARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB77 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB60 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB102 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB77 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB60 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 103 | RB | Jacardia WrightSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB78 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB103 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB78 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB117 in the middle 80%. |
| 104 | RB | Julius ChestnutTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB98 at the median, RB83 - RB109 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB104 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB98 at the median, RB83 - RB109 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB117 in the middle 80%. |
| 105 | RB | Ollie Gordon IIMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB81 - RB109 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB105 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB81 - RB109 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB116 in the middle 80%. |
| 106 | RB | Seth McGowanIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB100 at the median, RB87 - RB110 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB106 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB100 at the median, RB87 - RB110 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB117 in the middle 80%. |
| 107 | RB | Kendall MiltonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB102 at the median, RB86 - RB114 in the middle half, and RB67 - RB120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB107 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB102 at the median, RB86 - RB114 in the middle half, and RB67 - RB120 in the middle 80%. |
| 108 | RB | Brady RussellSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB102 at the median, RB84 - RB114 in the middle half, and RB66 - RB120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB108 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB102 at the median, RB84 - RB114 in the middle half, and RB66 - RB120 in the middle 80%. |
| 109 | RB | Rasheen AliBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB85 - RB109 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB109 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB85 - RB109 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB116 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 3 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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RB1 Jahmyr GibbsRB10Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked RB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%.
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RB10Kenneth Walker III is ranked RB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB31 in the middle 80%.
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RB3 Jonathan TaylorRB10Jonathan Taylor is ranked RB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
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RB4 Derrick HenryRB11Derrick Henry is ranked RB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB4 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB5 Bijan RobinsonRB12Bijan Robinson is ranked RB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB6 James CookRB13James Cook is ranked RB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB13 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
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RB7 Ashton JeantyRB15Ashton Jeanty is ranked RB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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RB15Christian McCaffrey is ranked RB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB6 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB9 De'Von AchaneRB16De'Von Achane is ranked RB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB10 Chase BrownRB17Chase Brown is ranked RB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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RB11 Breece HallRB19Breece Hall is ranked RB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
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RB12 D'Andre SwiftRB21D'Andre Swift is ranked RB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB13 Omarion HamptonRB20Omarion Hampton is ranked RB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
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RB14 Saquon BarkleyRB22Saquon Barkley is ranked RB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB15 Bucky IrvingRB22Bucky Irving is ranked RB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB16 Javonte WilliamsRB22Javonte Williams is ranked RB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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RB17 Cam SkatteboRB23Cam Skattebo is ranked RB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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RB18 Kyren WilliamsRB25Kyren Williams is ranked RB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB19 Jeremiyah LoveRB26Jeremiyah Love is ranked RB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB20 Chuba HubbardRB28Chuba Hubbard is ranked RB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB21 Bhayshul TutenRB27Bhayshul Tuten is ranked RB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB22 David MontgomeryRB27David Montgomery is ranked RB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB23 Aaron JonesRB29Aaron Jones is ranked RB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB24 Jaylen WarrenRB30Jaylen Warren is ranked RB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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RB25 Quinshon JudkinsRB29Quinshon Judkins is ranked RB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB26 Travis EtienneRB31Travis Etienne is ranked RB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB27 TreVeyon HendersonRB33TreVeyon Henderson is ranked RB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
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RB28 Jadarian PriceRB32Jadarian Price is ranked RB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB15 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
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RB29 Rhamondre StevensonRB32Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked RB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB17 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB30 Tony PollardRB35Tony Pollard is ranked RB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB18 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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RB31 Kyle MonangaiRB37Kyle Monangai is ranked RB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
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RB36Jacory Croskey-Merritt is ranked RB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB19 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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RB33 Blake CorumRB35Blake Corum is ranked RB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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RB34 Alvin KamaraRB40Alvin Kamara is ranked RB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
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RB35 Rachaad WhiteRB38Rachaad White is ranked RB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB22 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
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RB36 J.K. DobbinsRB41J.K. Dobbins is ranked RB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB22 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 67% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 59%, sportsbook props for 11%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 24, 2026 22:48 UTC. Model rankings-v1.4.0, board captured 2026-09-24.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
