WAS · Bye 7
Devin Neal
LMD RB Tier 8 for Week 9 · 6.1 projected Half PPR points · RB45 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.1 points this week, RB Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.5 - 12.7 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 18% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 8
5.4 - 6.4 projected points
Rest of season
RB45
127th by projected points
Projected
6.1
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
7%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 18% at RB
Movement
↑ 46
RB92 in Week 8, RB46 now
Should you start Devin Neal in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Devin Neal RB46 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 18% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+6.09 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No recent stats
- Availability
- No confirmed status
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No signal · Upstream unavailable
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 2.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 2.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 1.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 1.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | vs MIN | 1.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 8 | vs PHI | 1.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | vs LAR | 6.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 61.3 points this season, RB45. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 6.3 a game over 10 remaining games.
Per game
6.3 / game
Over 10 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Devin Neal #225 in 1QB and #227 in Superflex, RB61 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#225
RB61 · tier 50 · of 300
Superflex
#227
RB61 · tier 42 · of 307
- Last season 51.5 pts 5.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 53% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.09
pick 205.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 206
Draft range
15.06 - 15.14
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,941 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Devin Neal.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in 90% of simulations
Pick 206 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.07 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | 95% |
| 15.09 | 93% |
| 15.10 | 90% |
| 15.11 | 88% |
| 15.12 | 86% |
| 15.13 | 84% |
| 15.14 | 83% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.05 | <1% | 91 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 1% | 141 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 214 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 190 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.13 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.14 | 2% | 199 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1941 simulations in which Devin Neal was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 4%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 3%
- Troy Franklin WR · DEN 3%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Devin Neal was selected in 1941 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 29, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@92814d262ce9916c
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.