HOU · Bye 8
David Montgomery
LMD RB22 for Week 3 · 9.1 projected Standard points · RB21 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.1 points this week, RB22. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 44% of simulated weeks. Down 5 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB22
31st by projected points
Rest of season
RB21
30th by projected points
Projected
9.1
week 3, Standard
Top 12
22%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 44% at RB
Movement
↓ 5
RB17 in Week 2, RB22 now
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.10 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.24 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
David Montgomery shut down by Bengals in Week 2
lufkindailynews.com ·
-
Is David Montgomery injured? Frustrated fantasy managers ask 'Is he playing today?' after slow start vs Bengals
hindustantimes.com ·
-
David Montgomery, Two Other Players Facing Punishment After Texans’ Loss
Yahoo Sports ·
-
David Montgomery scores three times
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Texans Wire's Week 1 Player of the Game: RB David Montgomery
bundle.app ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to David Montgomery by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games David Montgomery has averaged +6.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 7.4 | 25.9 | +18.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 8.6 | 2.4 | -6.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 9.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB23. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at RB21.
Preseason market: RB23 · ADP 51.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB21 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB23 draft price.
Week 3
RB22 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his RB23 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB23 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 137.0 points this season, RB21. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 61% of simulated seasons. That is 9.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 5 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
9.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 61%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has David Montgomery #99 in 1QB and #103 in Superflex, RB32 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#99
RB32 · tier 23 · of 297
Superflex
#103
RB32 · tier 18 · of 303
- Last season 154.9 pts 9.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 13.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 7% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.06
pick 53.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.07
half of simulations take him by pick 55
Draft range
4.07 - 6.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.07 in 50% of simulations
Pick 55 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 6.06, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 5.07 50% · 6.06 6% · 7.07 <1% · 8.06 <1% · 9.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.01 and 5.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.05 | 60% |
| 5.06 | 55% |
| 5.07 | 50% |
| 5.08 | 45% |
| 5.09 | 39% |
| 5.10 | 34% |
| 5.11 | 29% |
| 5.12 | 24% |
| 6.01 | 19% |
| 6.02 | 15% |
| 6.03 | 12% |
| 6.04 | 10% |
| 6.05 | 8% |
| 6.06 | 6% |
| 6.07 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.07 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 2% | 211 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 2% | 241 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 2% | 234 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 5% | 450 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 3% | 312 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which David Montgomery was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Bucky Irving RB · TB 4%
- Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 4%
- Joe Burrow QB · CIN 4%
Usually taken just after
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 4%
- Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 4%
- Joe Burrow QB · CIN 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
David Montgomery was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.