DEN · Bye 10
J.K. Dobbins
LMD RB Tier 7 for Week 9 · 6.3 projected Standard points · RB45 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.3 points this week, RB Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.0 - 12.2 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 26% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 7
5.6 - 6.8 projected points
Rest of season
RB45
108th by projected points
Projected
6.3
week 9, Standard
Top 12
8%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 26% at RB
Movement
↓ 5
RB34 in Week 8, RB39 now
Should you start J.K. Dobbins in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks J.K. Dobbins RB39 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 26% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.03 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.55 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.20 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.81 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Sean Payton says J.K. Dobbins remains "a huge part of what we're doing"
NBC Sports ·
-
Troy Renck: Broncos’ J.K. Dobbins can’t be trusted to handle diminishing role. Denver needs another RB.
dailygazette.com ·
-
Broncos' Week 8 Snap Counts Send Telling Message About J.K. Dobbins
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Why Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins has become a name to watch for NFL trade deadline
Sporting News ·
-
J.K. Dobbins Delivers Expletive-Filled Statement As Media Highlights Broncos RB’s Struggles
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to J.K. Dobbins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games J.K. Dobbins has averaged -0.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 5.0 | 3.6 | -1.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 5.4 | 3.6 | -1.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 6.5 | 5.3 | -1.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ SF | 8.2 | 5.2 | -3.0 |
| Wk 5 | @ LAC | 7.7 | 13.4 | +5.7 |
| Wk 6 | vs SEA | 7.8 | 10.6 | +2.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ ARI | 8.6 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| Wk 8 | vs KC | 6.8 | 1.3 | -5.5 |
| Wk 9 | @ CAR | 6.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB29. For the rest of the season LMD has him 16 spots lower, at RB45.
Preseason market: RB29 · ADP 69.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB45 −16
LMD has him 16 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Week 9
RB39 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB29 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 54.3 points this season, RB45. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated seasons. That is 6.1 a game over 9 remaining games. Down 3 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.1 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has J.K. Dobbins #202 in 1QB and #205 in Superflex, RB51 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#202
RB51 · tier 44 · of 300
Superflex
#205
RB51 · tier 37 · of 307
- Last season 110.4 pts 11.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 8% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.10
pick 93.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.09
half of simulations take him by pick 93
Draft range
7.06 - 10.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.09 in 50% of simulations
Pick 93 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 9.04, where he is available in 32% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 8.09 50% · 9.04 32% · 10.09 5% · 11.04 1% · 12.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.12 and 9.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.07 | 56% |
| 8.08 | 53% |
| 8.09 | 50% |
| 8.10 | 48% |
| 8.11 | 45% |
| 8.12 | 43% |
| 9.01 | 40% |
| 9.02 | 37% |
| 9.03 | 35% |
| 9.04 | 32% |
| 9.05 | 30% |
| 9.06 | 28% |
| 9.07 | 25% |
| 9.08 | 23% |
| 9.09 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.06-7.07 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 569 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which J.K. Dobbins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 2%
Usually taken just after
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
J.K. Dobbins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.