DEN · Bye 10
J.K. Dobbins
LMD RB38 for Week 3 · 6.4 projected Standard points · RB44 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.4 points this week, RB38. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 27% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB38
84th by projected points
Rest of season
RB44
116th by projected points
Projected
6.4
week 3, Standard
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 27% at RB
Movement
↓ 1
RB37 in Week 2, RB38 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.54 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.03 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.71 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
J.K. Dobbins dealing with minor injury
USA TODAY ·
-
J.K. Dobbins' latest injury update has huge fantasy football implications after Week 2 exit
lufkindailynews.com ·
-
Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins makes pinky promise with Denver media
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to J.K. Dobbins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games J.K. Dobbins has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 5.0 | 3.6 | -1.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 5.4 | 3.6 | -1.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 6.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB29. For the rest of the season LMD has him 15 spots lower, at RB44.
Preseason market: RB29 · ADP 69.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB44 −15
LMD has him 15 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Week 3
RB38 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB29 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 84.5 points this season, RB44. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 6.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 7 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has J.K. Dobbins #202 in 1QB and #205 in Superflex, RB51 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#202
RB51 · tier 44 · of 297
Superflex
#205
RB51 · tier 37 · of 303
- Last season 110.4 pts 11.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 8% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.10
pick 93.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.09
half of simulations take him by pick 93
Draft range
7.06 - 10.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.09 in 50% of simulations
Pick 93 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 9.04, where he is available in 32% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 8.09 50% · 9.04 32% · 10.09 5% · 11.04 1% · 12.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.12 and 9.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.07 | 56% |
| 8.08 | 53% |
| 8.09 | 50% |
| 8.10 | 48% |
| 8.11 | 45% |
| 8.12 | 43% |
| 9.01 | 40% |
| 9.02 | 37% |
| 9.03 | 35% |
| 9.04 | 32% |
| 9.05 | 30% |
| 9.06 | 28% |
| 9.07 | 26% |
| 9.08 | 23% |
| 9.09 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.06-7.07 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 529 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 6% | 612 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 6% | 589 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 533 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 529 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which J.K. Dobbins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
J.K. Dobbins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.