IND · Bye 13 · Rookie
Seth McGowan
LMD RB Tier 10 for Week 9 · 4.4 projected Half PPR points · RB69 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.4 points this week, RB Tier 10. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.5 - 9.5 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 10
3.3 - 4.6 projected points
Rest of season
RB69
206th by projected points
Projected
4.4
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at RB
Movement
↑ 2
RB59 in Week 8, RB57 now
Should you start Seth McGowan in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Seth McGowan RB57 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 10% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB57 vs RB63 +6
LMD has him RB57. The fantasy draft market has him RB63, 6 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.40 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.33 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Seth McGowan has averaged 0.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 1.9 | 0.5 | -1.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 1.9 | 0.0 | -1.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 2.1 | 1.4 | -0.7 |
| Wk 4 | @ WAS | 1.6 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| Wk 5 | @ PIT | 2.6 | 2.4 | -0.2 |
| Wk 6 | vs TEN | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Wk 7 | @ MIN | 2.6 | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| Wk 8 | @ JAX | 3.9 | 2.9 | -1.0 |
| Wk 9 | vs DAL | 4.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 38.8 points this season, RB69. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.3 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 12 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
4.3 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Seth McGowan #269 in 1QB and #270 in Superflex, RB76 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#269
RB76 · tier 63 · of 300 · rookie 49 of 52
Superflex
#270
RB76 · tier 55 · of 307 · rookie 49 of 52
- Draft capital Round 7, pick 237 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.04
pick 39.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.05
half of simulations take him by pick 41
Draft range
3.07 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,138 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Seth McGowan.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.05 in 61% of simulations
Pick 41 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.12 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.03 | 69% |
| 4.04 | 65% |
| 4.05 | 61% |
| 4.06 | 56% |
| 4.07 | 51% |
| 4.08 | 47% |
| 4.09 | 41% |
| 4.10 | 36% |
| 4.11 | 30% |
| 4.12 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.07 | 2% | 230 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 236 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 284 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 598 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8138 simulations in which Seth McGowan was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 6%
- Kaytron Allen RB · MIA 5%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 4%
- Demond Claiborne RB · MIN 4%
Usually taken just after
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 5%
- Demond Claiborne RB · MIN 4%
- Kaytron Allen RB · MIA 4%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Seth McGowan was selected in 8138 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.