ATL · Bye 11
Brian Robinson
LMD RB46 for Week 3 · 4.9 projected Standard points · RB48 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.9 points this week, RB46. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 17% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 4 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB46
126th by projected points
Rest of season
RB48
137th by projected points
Projected
4.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 17% at RB
Movement
↑ 4
RB50 in Week 2, RB46 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.19 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.67 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Brian Robinson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 161.3 to 147.4 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Brian Robinson has averaged +1.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 2.8 | 3.1 | +0.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 3.5 | 6.7 | +3.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 4.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 73.8 points this season, RB48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 2 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brian Robinson #225 in 1QB and #229 in Superflex, RB60 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#225
RB60 · tier 50 · of 297
Superflex
#229
RB60 · tier 42 · of 303
- Last season 58.5 pts 3.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 4% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.06
pick 101.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.05
half of simulations take him by pick 101
Draft range
7.12 - 11.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.05 in 51% of simulations
Pick 101 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 10.08, where he is available in 18% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 9.05 51% · 10.08 18% · 11.05 6% · 12.08 <1% · 13.05 <1% · 14.08 <1% · 15.05 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.06 and 10.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.03 | 56% |
| 9.04 | 53% |
| 9.05 | 51% |
| 9.06 | 48% |
| 9.07 | 46% |
| 9.08 | 44% |
| 9.09 | 41% |
| 9.10 | 39% |
| 9.11 | 36% |
| 9.12 | 34% |
| 10.01 | 32% |
| 10.02 | 29% |
| 10.03 | 27% |
| 10.04 | 25% |
| 10.05 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.12-8.01 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 450 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 3% | 328 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Brian Robinson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brian Robinson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.