LAC · Bye 7
Keaton Mitchell
LMD RB Tier 9 for Week 9 · 5.3 projected Half PPR points · RB56 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.3 points this week, RB Tier 9. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.9 - 10.7 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 14% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 9
4.8 - 6.0 projected points
Rest of season
RB56
149th by projected points
Projected
5.3
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 14% at RB
Movement
↓ 7
RB44 in Week 8, RB51 now
Should you start Keaton Mitchell in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Keaton Mitchell RB51 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 14% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.38 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.86 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.17 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Keaton Mitchell has averaged +0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 3.5 | 0.9 | -2.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 3.4 | 4.4 | +1.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 3.0 | 12.2 | +9.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 4.4 | 8.8 | +4.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs DEN | 6.9 | 4.4 | -2.5 |
| Wk 6 | @ KC | 6.6 | 0.4 | -6.2 |
| Wk 8 | @ LAR | 4.7 | 3.8 | -0.9 |
| Wk 9 | vs HOU | 5.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 52.9 points this season, RB56. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.3 a game over 10.154 remaining games. Down 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.3 / game
Over 10.154 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Keaton Mitchell #301 in Superflex. Age 24.
1QB
--
Not ranked on this board
Superflex
#301
RB84 · tier 67 · of 307
- Last season 50.9 pts 3.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 4% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.08 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 747 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Keaton Mitchell.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 97% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | 98% |
| 15.11 | 97% |
| 15.12 | 95% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 3 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 5 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 9 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 28 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 39 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 747 simulations in which Keaton Mitchell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 3%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 3%
Usually taken just after
- Los Angeles Chargers DST · LAC 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Tank Bigsby RB · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Keaton Mitchell was selected in 747 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.