PIT · Bye 9
Rico Dowdle
LMD RB35 for Week 3 · 6.7 projected Standard points · RB38 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.7 points this week, RB35. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 2 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB35
79th by projected points
Rest of season
RB38
91st by projected points
Projected
6.7
week 3, Standard
Top 12
12%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 28% at RB
Movement
↓ 2
RB33 in Week 2, RB35 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.61 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.48 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Rico Dowdle held in check vs. Patriots before making early exit
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Steelers injury report: Rico Dowdle leaves loss to Patriots, Troy Fautanu plays despite ailment
triblive.com ·
-
Steelers' Rico Dowdle Was A Massive Disappointment In Team Debut
yardbarker.com ·
-
Rico Dowdle stymied by Atlanta in his Pittsburgh debut
USA TODAY ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Rico Dowdle's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 74.5 to 78.7 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Rico Dowdle by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Rico Dowdle has averaged -3.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 6.8 | 2.1 | -4.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 5.8 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 6.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB31. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots lower, at RB38.
Preseason market: RB31 · ADP 78.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB38 −7
LMD has him 7 spots lower than his RB31 draft price.
Week 3
RB35 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his RB31 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB31 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 93.4 points this season, RB38. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 5% of simulated seasons. That is 6.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 5%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Rico Dowdle #97 in 1QB and #102 in Superflex, RB31 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#97
RB31 · tier 23 · of 297
Superflex
#102
RB31 · tier 18 · of 303
- Last season 196.8 pts 11.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 97% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.03
pick 86.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.02
half of simulations take him by pick 86
Draft range
6.09 - 9.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.02 in 53% of simulations
Pick 86 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 9.11, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 8.02 53% · 9.11 8% · 10.02 5% · 11.11 <1% · 12.02 <1% · 13.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.04 and 8.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.12 | 58% |
| 8.01 | 55% |
| 8.02 | 53% |
| 8.03 | 50% |
| 8.04 | 47% |
| 8.05 | 44% |
| 8.06 | 41% |
| 8.07 | 38% |
| 8.08 | 36% |
| 8.09 | 34% |
| 8.10 | 31% |
| 8.11 | 29% |
| 8.12 | 27% |
| 9.01 | 25% |
| 9.02 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.09-6.10 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 3% | 344 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 532 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 402 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 376 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Rico Dowdle was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 2%
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 2%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2%
Usually taken just after
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Rico Dowdle was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.