CAR · Bye 5
Chuba Hubbard
LMD RB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 13.7 projected Standard points · RB6 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.7 points this week, RB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.8 - 25.2 points. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 66% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 3
12.6 - 14.0 projected points
Rest of season
RB6
6th by projected points
Projected
13.7
week 9, Standard
Top 12
42%
Top 3: 12% · Top 24: 66% at RB
Movement
↑ 5
RB12 in Week 8, RB7 now
Should you start Chuba Hubbard in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Chuba Hubbard RB7 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 66% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.69 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.32 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.98 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Panthers Stock Report: Chuba Hubbard Rises, Bryce Young Falls After Packers Loss
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Panthers leave Lambeau with Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, everyone ‘pissed off’
newsobserver.com ·
-
Chuba Hubbard gives Panthers 10-6 lead
NBC Sports ·
-
Fantasy start-sit Week 8: Jalen Coker, Darren Waller, Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em TNF: Josh Jacobs vs. Chuba Hubbard
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chuba Hubbard by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Chuba Hubbard has averaged +5.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 4.7 | 20.7 | +16.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 7.0 | 12.4 | +5.4 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 11.6 | 24.9 | +13.3 |
| Wk 6 | @ PHI | 12.3 | 18.1 | +5.8 |
| Wk 7 | vs TB | 12.4 | 6.0 | -6.4 |
| Wk 8 | @ GB | 12.1 | 17.9 | +5.8 |
| Wk 9 | vs DEN | 13.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB32. For the rest of the season LMD has him 26 spots higher, at RB6.
Preseason market: RB32 · ADP 80.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB6 +26
LMD has him 26 spots higher than his RB32 draft price.
Week 9
RB7 +25
LMD has him 25 spots higher than his RB32 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB32 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 131.4 points this season, RB6. Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 70% · Top 24: 96% of simulated seasons. That is 13.9 a game over 9.975 remaining games. Up 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
13.9 / game
Over 9.975 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 70% · Top 24: 96%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chuba Hubbard #144 in 1QB and #145 in Superflex, RB40 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#144
RB40 · tier 32 · of 300
Superflex
#145
RB40 · tier 26 · of 307
- Last season 110.4 pts 7.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.07
pick 90.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.06
half of simulations take him by pick 90
Draft range
7.02 - 9.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.06 in 52% of simulations
Pick 90 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 9.07, where he is available in 18% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 8.06 52% · 9.07 18% · 10.06 3% · 11.07 <1% · 12.06 <1% · 13.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.09 and 9.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.04 | 58% |
| 8.05 | 55% |
| 8.06 | 52% |
| 8.07 | 49% |
| 8.08 | 46% |
| 8.09 | 43% |
| 8.10 | 41% |
| 8.11 | 38% |
| 8.12 | 35% |
| 9.01 | 33% |
| 9.02 | 30% |
| 9.03 | 28% |
| 9.04 | 25% |
| 9.05 | 23% |
| 9.06 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.02-7.03 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 539 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 6% | 630 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 6% | 571 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Chuba Hubbard was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 3%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
Usually taken just after
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chuba Hubbard was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.