MIN · Bye 6
Aaron Jones Sr.
LMD RB Tier 6 for Week 9 · 7.5 projected Standard points · RB30 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.5 points this week, RB Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.6 - 14.8 points. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 32% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 6
7.5 - 8.8 projected points
Rest of season
RB30
52nd by projected points
Projected
7.5
week 9, Standard
Top 12
13%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 32% at RB
Movement
↓ 13
RB21 in Week 8, RB34 now
Should you start Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Aaron Jones Sr. RB34 for Week 9, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 32% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.31 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.86 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.29 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Football Injury Impact: Aaron Jones Missing Practice Could Force Jordan Mason Into A Bell-Cow Role
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Aaron Jones Avoids Devastating Injury: Expect More Jordan Mason Going Forward
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Aaron Jones Sr. injures knee and questionable to return as Vikings defend slim lead vs Colts
hindustantimes.com ·
-
STATUS
Aaron Jones is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Week 7 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings: Josh Jacobs Is Back, Chase Brown Climbs, And Aaron Jones Falls
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Aaron Jones Sr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Aaron Jones Sr. has averaged +0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 5.3 | 10.0 | +4.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 7.8 | 10.5 | +2.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 |
| Wk 4 | vs MIA | 11.8 | 12.8 | +1.0 |
| Wk 5 | @ NO | 12.2 | 15.7 | +3.5 |
| Wk 7 | vs IND | 9.3 | 2.6 | -6.7 |
| Wk 8 | @ DET | 7.3 | 4.0 | -3.3 |
| Wk 9 | vs BUF | 7.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 79.9 points this season, RB30. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 30% of simulated seasons. That is 7.3 a game over 10.346 remaining games. Down 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.3 / game
Over 10.346 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 30%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Aaron Jones Sr. #221 in 1QB and #224 in Superflex, RB60 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#221
RB60 · tier 49 · of 300
Superflex
#224
RB60 · tier 41 · of 307
- Last season 104.7 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.08
pick 115.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.06
half of simulations take him by pick 114
Draft range
9.04 - 11.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,996 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.06 in 53% of simulations
Pick 114 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 11.07, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 10.06 53% · 11.07 20% · 12.06 4% · 13.07 <1% · 14.06 <1% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.10 and 11.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.04 | 59% |
| 10.05 | 56% |
| 10.06 | 53% |
| 10.07 | 50% |
| 10.08 | 47% |
| 10.09 | 44% |
| 10.10 | 41% |
| 10.11 | 38% |
| 10.12 | 36% |
| 11.01 | 34% |
| 11.02 | 31% |
| 11.03 | 29% |
| 11.04 | 26% |
| 11.05 | 24% |
| 11.06 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 597 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 6% | 637 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 633 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 635 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 376 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 331 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9996 simulations in which Aaron Jones Sr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 3%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 3%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 3%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Aaron Jones Sr. was selected in 9996 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.