MIN · Bye 6
Aaron Jones
LMD RB25 for Week 3 · 8.9 projected Standard points · RB29 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.9 points this week, RB25. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 43% of simulated weeks. Up 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB25
37th by projected points
Rest of season
RB29
47th by projected points
Projected
8.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
20%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 43% at RB
Movement
↑ 3
RB28 in Week 2, RB25 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.95 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.62 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.72 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Aaron Jones had a perfect response to the hit that sent his helmet flying
Yahoo Sports ·
-
How veteran Aaron Jones is making sure the Vikings are ready for Chicago
brainerddispatch.com ·
-
For Packers-turned-Vikings running back Aaron Jones, first touchdown against his former team delivered validation
channel3000.com ·
-
Former Packer Aaron Jones leads Minnesota’s comeback win over Green Bay
kvia.com ·
-
Packers vs Vikings: Kickoff Time, TV Channel Details, Aaron Jones Revenge, And Score Prediction
sundayguardianlive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Aaron Jones by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Aaron Jones has averaged +3.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 5.3 | 10.0 | +4.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 7.8 | 10.5 | +2.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 8.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 122.8 points this season, RB29. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 36% of simulated seasons. That is 8.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 9 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 36%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Aaron Jones #221 in 1QB and #224 in Superflex, RB59 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#221
RB59 · tier 49 · of 297
Superflex
#224
RB59 · tier 41 · of 303
- Last season 104.7 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.08
pick 115.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.06
half of simulations take him by pick 114
Draft range
9.04 - 11.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,994 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.06 in 53% of simulations
Pick 114 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 11.07, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 10.06 53% · 11.07 20% · 12.06 4% · 13.07 <1% · 14.06 <1% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.10 and 11.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.04 | 59% |
| 10.05 | 56% |
| 10.06 | 53% |
| 10.07 | 50% |
| 10.08 | 47% |
| 10.09 | 44% |
| 10.10 | 41% |
| 10.11 | 38% |
| 10.12 | 36% |
| 11.01 | 34% |
| 11.02 | 31% |
| 11.03 | 29% |
| 11.04 | 26% |
| 11.05 | 24% |
| 11.06 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 598 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 6% | 627 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 634 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 624 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 497 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9994 simulations in which Aaron Jones was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 3%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 3%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 3%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 3%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Aaron Jones was selected in 9994 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.