ARI · Bye 14
Tyler Allgeier
LMD RB41 for Week 3 · 6.1 projected Standard points · RB39 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.1 points this week, RB41. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks. Down 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB41
95th by projected points
Rest of season
RB39
102nd by projected points
Projected
6.1
week 3, Standard
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 25% at RB
Movement
↓ 6
RB35 in Week 2, RB41 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.78 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.02 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Jalen Coker and Tyler Allgeier Lead This Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Debate After a Wild Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tyler Allgeier Fantasy Week 2 Start or Sit: Don’t Chase the Week 1 Load
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tyler Allgeier leads the backfield
USA TODAY ·
-
Fantasy Waiver Wire Targets Week 2: Tyler Allgeier, Devaughn Vele, and Caleb Douglas Are Top Pickups
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Tyler Allgeier's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 152.0 to 141.5 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Allgeier by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Tyler Allgeier has averaged +0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAC | 3.7 | 7.0 | +3.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs SEA | 4.6 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ SF | 6.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 90.0 points this season, RB39. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 6.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 7 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Allgeier #147 in 1QB and #149 in Superflex, RB42 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#147
RB42 · tier 33 · of 297
Superflex
#149
RB42 · tier 27 · of 303
- Last season 116.0 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.03
pick 110.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.01
half of simulations take him by pick 109
Draft range
8.08 - 11.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,999 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.01 in 52% of simulations
Pick 109 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 11.12, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 10.01 52% · 11.12 8% · 12.01 7% · 13.12 <1% · 14.01 <1% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 11.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.11 | 58% |
| 9.12 | 55% |
| 10.01 | 52% |
| 10.02 | 50% |
| 10.03 | 47% |
| 10.04 | 45% |
| 10.05 | 42% |
| 10.06 | 40% |
| 10.07 | 37% |
| 10.08 | 35% |
| 10.09 | 33% |
| 10.10 | 30% |
| 10.11 | 29% |
| 10.12 | 27% |
| 11.01 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 532 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 552 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 479 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 347 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10 | 1% | 119 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9999 simulations in which Tyler Allgeier was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyler Allgeier was selected in 9999 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.