ARI · Bye 14
Tyler Allgeier
LMD RB Tier 6 for Week 9 · 8.0 projected Standard points · RB34 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.0 points this week, RB Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.9 - 15.2 points. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 36% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 6
7.5 - 8.8 projected points
Rest of season
RB34
59th by projected points
Projected
8.0
week 9, Standard
Top 12
15%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 36% at RB
Movement
↑ 6
RB36 in Week 8, RB30 now
Should you start Tyler Allgeier in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Tyler Allgeier RB30 for Week 9, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 36% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB30 vs RB47 +17
LMD has him RB30. The fantasy draft market has him RB47, 17 places lower.
Recent usage above his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.49 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.23 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Managers Should Trade for Tyler Allgeier Ahead Of Week 9
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Tyler Allgeier, George Pickens And More
bundle.app ·
-
Fantasy Football Week 9 Running Back Projections & Rankings: Start Jonah Coleman, Tyler Allgeier
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Arizona Cardinals RB Tyler Allgeier named NFC Offensive Player of the Week
yardbarker.com ·
-
Cardinals RB Tyler Allgeier named NFC Offensive Player of the Week
12news.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Allgeier by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Tyler Allgeier has averaged +2.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAC | 3.7 | 7.0 | +3.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs SEA | 4.6 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ SF | 5.7 | 0.9 | -4.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ NYG | 4.8 | 10.9 | +6.1 |
| Wk 5 | vs DET | 5.9 | 1.6 | -4.3 |
| Wk 6 | @ LAR | 5.0 | 4.8 | -0.2 |
| Wk 7 | vs DEN | 6.5 | 4.9 | -1.6 |
| Wk 8 | @ DAL | 5.7 | 31.1 | +25.4 |
| Wk 9 | @ SEA | 8.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 74.5 points this season, RB34. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 20% of simulated seasons. That is 7.8 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.8 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 20%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Allgeier #147 in 1QB and #149 in Superflex, RB42 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#147
RB42 · tier 33 · of 300
Superflex
#149
RB42 · tier 27 · of 307
- Last season 116.0 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.03
pick 110.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.01
half of simulations take him by pick 109
Draft range
8.08 - 11.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,996 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 109 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 11.12, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 10.01 53% · 11.12 8% · 12.01 7% · 13.12 <1% · 14.01 <1% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 11.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.11 | 58% |
| 9.12 | 55% |
| 10.01 | 53% |
| 10.02 | 50% |
| 10.03 | 47% |
| 10.04 | 45% |
| 10.05 | 42% |
| 10.06 | 40% |
| 10.07 | 37% |
| 10.08 | 35% |
| 10.09 | 33% |
| 10.10 | 30% |
| 10.11 | 28% |
| 10.12 | 27% |
| 11.01 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 3% | 252 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10 | 1% | 118 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9996 simulations in which Tyler Allgeier was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyler Allgeier was selected in 9996 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.