LV · Bye 13 · Rookie
Mike Washington Jr.
LMD RB60 for Week 3 · 3.5 projected Standard points · RB66 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.5 points this week, RB60. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks. Down 5 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB60
188th by projected points
Rest of season
RB66
209th by projected points
Projected
3.5
week 3, Standard
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at RB
Movement
↓ 5
RB55 in Week 2, RB60 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.37 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
AFC Notes: Kirk Cousins, Mike Washington Jr., Broncos, Raiders
yardbarker.com ·
-
Mike Washington Jr. praised by head coach
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Can Ashton Jeanty Hold Off Mike Washington After Greg Cosell’s Surprising Comparison?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Klint Kubiak plays it close to the chest on Ashton Jeanty, praises Mike Washington Jr.
yardbarker.com ·
-
Mike Washington Jr. showing off ‘phenomenal’ Raiders potential after Ashton Jeanty injury
nypost.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mike Washington Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Mike Washington Jr. has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 3.7 | 4.1 | +0.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 2.7 | 0.7 | -2.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 3.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB50. For the rest of the season LMD has him 16 spots lower, at RB66.
Preseason market: RB50 · ADP 154.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB66 −16
LMD has him 16 spots lower than his RB50 draft price.
Week 3
RB60 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB50 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB50 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 53.6 points this season, RB66. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.5 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 10 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
3.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mike Washington Jr. #158 in 1QB and #163 in Superflex, RB46 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#158
RB46 · tier 36 · of 297 · rookie 16 of 52
Superflex
#163
RB46 · tier 30 · of 303 · rookie 16 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 122 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.12
pick 156.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.03
half of simulations take him by pick 159
Draft range
12.04 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,368 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.03 in 68% of simulations
Pick 159 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 15.10, where he is available in 43% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 14.03 68% · 15.10 43%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.08 and 15.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.01 | 69% |
| 14.02 | 69% |
| 14.03 | 68% |
| 14.04 | 68% |
| 14.05 | 67% |
| 14.06 | 67% |
| 14.07 | 66% |
| 14.08 | 65% |
| 14.09 | 65% |
| 14.10 | 64% |
| 14.11 | 64% |
| 14.12 | 63% |
| 15.01 | 62% |
| 15.02 | 60% |
| 15.03 | 58% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.04-12.05 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 5% | 529 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 6% | 624 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 284 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 17 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 15 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 29 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 30 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | <1% | 99 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 107 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 123 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6368 simulations in which Mike Washington Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 3%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Kyler Murray QB · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mike Washington Jr. was selected in 6368 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.