NE · Bye 11
TreVeyon Henderson
LMD RB26 for Week 3 · 8.8 projected Standard points · RB22 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.8 points this week, RB26. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 39% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 10 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB26
38th by projected points
Rest of season
RB22
35th by projected points
Projected
8.8
week 3, Standard
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 39% at RB
Movement
↑ 10
RB36 in Week 2, RB26 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.49 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight positive+0.40 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
TreVeyon Henderson runs for a TD and the Patriots pummel Aaron Rodgers in a 20-3 win over Steelers
ncnewsonline.com ·
-
TreVeyon Henderson explosive in season debut
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Patriots injury report: RB TreVeyon Henderson good to go, CB Carlton Davis questionable vs. Steelers
boston.com ·
-
TreVeyon Henderson ready to play in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson will play Week 2 vs. Steelers
The New York Times ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to TreVeyon Henderson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game TreVeyon Henderson has averaged +8.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 3.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs PIT | 5.3 | 13.6 | +8.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ JAX | 8.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB24. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at RB22.
Preseason market: RB24 · ADP 58.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB22 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB24 draft price.
Week 3
RB26 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his RB24 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB24 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 133.7 points this season, RB22. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 54% of simulated seasons. That is 8.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 13 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
8.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 54%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has TreVeyon Henderson #21 in 1QB and #30 in Superflex, RB10 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#21
RB10 · tier 9 · of 297
Superflex
#30
RB10 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 188.7 pts 11.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 13.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 8% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.04
pick 63.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.03
half of simulations take him by pick 63
Draft range
5.05 - 7.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.03 in 55% of simulations
Pick 63 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 7.10, where he is available in 2% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 6.03 55% · 7.10 2% · 8.03 <1% · 9.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.10 and 6.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.01 | 65% |
| 6.02 | 60% |
| 6.03 | 55% |
| 6.04 | 50% |
| 6.05 | 45% |
| 6.06 | 40% |
| 6.07 | 35% |
| 6.08 | 31% |
| 6.09 | 27% |
| 6.10 | 23% |
| 6.11 | 20% |
| 6.12 | 17% |
| 7.01 | 15% |
| 7.02 | 12% |
| 7.03 | 10% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.05 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 265 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03 | 5% | 548 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09 | 4% | 364 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10 | 3% | 322 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12 | 2% | 249 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01 | 2% | 233 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03 | 2% | 189 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which TreVeyon Henderson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 4%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 4%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 4%
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 4%
- Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
TreVeyon Henderson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.