GB · Bye 11
MarShawn Lloyd
LMD RB Tier 8 for Week 9 · 4.7 projected Standard points · RB53 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.7 points this week, RB Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.5 - 10.0 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 16% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 8
4.0 - 5.4 projected points
Rest of season
RB53
132nd by projected points
Projected
4.7
week 9, Standard
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 16% at RB
Movement
↓ 4
RB45 in Week 8, RB49 now
Should you start MarShawn Lloyd in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks MarShawn Lloyd RB49 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 16% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB49 vs RB39 -10
LMD has him RB49. The fantasy draft market has him RB39, 10 places higher.
Recent usage below his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.20 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.19 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.47 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.04 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to MarShawn Lloyd by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games MarShawn Lloyd has averaged -1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 6.9 | 3.7 | -3.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 5.9 | 1.8 | -4.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 4.7 | 4.9 | +0.2 |
| Wk 5 | vs CHI | 6.3 | 15.7 | +9.4 |
| Wk 6 | vs DAL | 7.3 | 1.0 | -6.3 |
| Wk 7 | @ DET | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 |
| Wk 8 | vs CAR | 4.6 | 1.6 | -3.0 |
| Wk 9 | @ NE | 4.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB39. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots lower, at RB53.
Preseason market: RB39 · ADP 115.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB53 −14
LMD has him 14 spots lower than his RB39 draft price.
Week 9
RB49 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB39 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB39 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 46.0 points this season, RB53. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.6 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 5 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
4.6 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD does not currently assign MarShawn Lloyd a differentiated dynasty rank. Age 25.
The model prices him at replacement level for the next three seasons and does not separate him from the several hundred players it prices the same way, so it assigns no rank rather than an invented one.
- Last season 2.3 pts 2.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 2% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Played in 1 of his 2 seasons in the window the model reads.
- Touches 2.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.02
pick 134.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.12
half of simulations take him by pick 132
Draft range
9.12 - 15.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,782 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.12 in 57% of simulations
Pick 132 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 12.01, where he is available in 55% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 11.12 57% · 12.01 55% · 13.12 28% · 14.01 28% · 15.12 13%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.11 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.10 | 61% |
| 11.11 | 59% |
| 11.12 | 57% |
| 12.01 | 55% |
| 12.02 | 53% |
| 12.03 | 51% |
| 12.04 | 48% |
| 12.05 | 46% |
| 12.06 | 44% |
| 12.07 | 42% |
| 12.08 | 40% |
| 12.09 | 38% |
| 12.10 | 35% |
| 12.11 | 33% |
| 12.12 | 31% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.12-10.02 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.05 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.08 | 4% | 394 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.11 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.02 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 5% | 532 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 6% | 649 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 7% | 651 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 6% | 643 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 6% | 645 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 2% | 211 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 37 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 1% | 115 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | <1% | 99 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.02 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8782 simulations in which MarShawn Lloyd was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
MarShawn Lloyd was selected in 8782 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.