GB · Bye 11
MarShawn Lloyd
LMD RB40 for Week 3 · 6.2 projected Standard points · RB43 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.2 points this week, RB40. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 26% of simulated weeks. Down 10 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB40
93rd by projected points
Rest of season
RB43
113th by projected points
Projected
6.2
week 3, Standard
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 26% at RB
Movement
↓ 10
RB30 in Week 2, RB40 now
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.56 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.31 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games MarShawn Lloyd has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 6.9 | 3.7 | -3.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 6.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB39. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots lower, at RB43.
Preseason market: RB39 · ADP 115.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB43 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his RB39 draft price.
Week 3
RB40 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his RB39 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB39 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 87.4 points this season, RB43. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated seasons. That is 6.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 15 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD does not currently assign MarShawn Lloyd a differentiated dynasty rank. Age 25.
The model prices him at replacement level for the next three seasons and does not separate him from the several hundred players it prices the same way, so it assigns no rank rather than an invented one.
- Last season 2.3 pts 2.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 2% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Played in 1 of his 2 seasons in the window the model reads.
- Touches 2.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.02
pick 134.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.12
half of simulations take him by pick 132
Draft range
9.12 - 15.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,686 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.12 in 58% of simulations
Pick 132 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 12.01, where he is available in 56% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 11.12 58% · 12.01 56% · 13.12 29% · 14.01 29% · 15.12 14%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.11 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.10 | 61% |
| 11.11 | 60% |
| 11.12 | 58% |
| 12.01 | 56% |
| 12.02 | 54% |
| 12.03 | 51% |
| 12.04 | 49% |
| 12.05 | 47% |
| 12.06 | 45% |
| 12.07 | 42% |
| 12.08 | 40% |
| 12.09 | 38% |
| 12.10 | 36% |
| 12.11 | 34% |
| 12.12 | 32% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.12-10.02 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.05 | 3% | 310 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.08 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.11 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.02 | 5% | 450 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 7% | 650 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 7% | 658 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 6% | 639 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 7% | 659 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 11 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 15 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | <1% | 93 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 1% | 110 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 1% | 118 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.02 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | <1% | 99 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8686 simulations in which MarShawn Lloyd was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
MarShawn Lloyd was selected in 8686 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.