DAL · Bye 14
Javonte Williams
LMD RB15 for Week 3 · 11.1 projected Standard points · RB14 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.1 points this week, RB15. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 54% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB15
18th by projected points
Rest of season
RB14
17th by projected points
Projected
11.1
week 3, Standard
Top 12
30%
Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 54% at RB
Movement
↓ 1
RB14 in Week 2, RB15 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.38 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.66 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Dak Prescott Makes Telling Javonte Williams Statement After Costly Cowboys Mistake
yardbarker.com ·
-
Cowboys, Javonte Williams ready to move past RB's 'out of character' taunting penalty
dallasnews.com ·
-
Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams carries the ball for a touchdown against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Javonte Williams's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 30.2 to 25.6 over the last 7 days.
-
Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams in action during the first half against the New York Giants.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Javonte Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Javonte Williams has averaged +3.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 9.5 | 19.2 | +9.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 8.4 | 5.0 | -3.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 11.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot lower, at RB14.
Preseason market: RB13 · ADP 23.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB14 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his RB13 draft price.
Week 3
RB15 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his RB13 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 158.0 points this season, RB14. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 10.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 5 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
10.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 85%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Javonte Williams #46 in 1QB and #58 in Superflex, RB18 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#46
RB18 · tier 14 · of 297
Superflex
#58
RB18 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 225.3 pts 14.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.12
pick 24.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.01
half of simulations take him by pick 25
Draft range
2.08 - 3.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.01 in 50% of simulations
Pick 25 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 4.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 3.01 50% · 4.12 <1% · 5.01 <1% · 6.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.10 and 3.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.11 | 68% |
| 2.12 | 59% |
| 3.01 | 50% |
| 3.02 | 40% |
| 3.03 | 30% |
| 3.04 | 22% |
| 3.05 | 14% |
| 3.06 | 10% |
| 3.07 | 7% |
| 3.08 | 5% |
| 3.09 | 3% |
| 3.10 | 2% |
| 3.11 | 2% |
| 3.12 | 1% |
| 4.01 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 8% | 835 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 9% | 912 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 9% | 923 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 9% | 894 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 10% | 1021 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 10% | 960 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 8% | 835 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 7% | 744 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Javonte Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 10%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 9%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 8%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7%
Usually taken just after
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 9%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 8%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 7%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Javonte Williams was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.