DAL · Bye 14
Javonte Williams
LMD RB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 13.1 projected Standard points · RB12 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.1 points this week, RB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.4 - 24.6 points. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 64% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 3
12.6 - 14.0 projected points
Rest of season
RB12
14th by projected points
Projected
13.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
39%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 64% at RB
Movement
↓ 2
RB6 in Week 8, RB8 now
Should you start Javonte Williams in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Javonte Williams RB8 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 64% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.61 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.62 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.69 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Javonte Williams Tells Caleb Downs Dallas Felt Like 'UNC All Over Again'
yardbarker.com ·
-
Cowboys RB Javonte Williams considered retirement before signing with team
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Javonte Williams Credits Cowboys for Saving His NFL Career
newsweek.com ·
-
Dallas Cowboys RB Javonte Williams Admits Contemplating Retirement Before 'Rebirth'
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Jerry Jones Calls for Run-First Cowboys Offense After Javonte Williams' Breakout
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Javonte Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Javonte Williams has averaged +3.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 9.5 | 19.2 | +9.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 8.4 | 5.0 | -3.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 10.3 | 16.3 | +6.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ HOU | 11.1 | 26.3 | +15.2 |
| Wk 5 | vs TB | 12.9 | 12.2 | -0.7 |
| Wk 6 | @ GB | 13.2 | 11.0 | -2.2 |
| Wk 7 | @ PHI | 11.8 | 21.5 | +9.7 |
| Wk 8 | vs ARI | 13.5 | 5.7 | -7.8 |
| Wk 9 | @ IND | 13.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot higher, at RB12.
Preseason market: RB13 · ADP 23.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB12 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his RB13 draft price.
Week 9
RB8 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his RB13 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 111.5 points this season, RB12. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 40% · Top 24: 83% of simulated seasons. That is 13.2 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
13.2 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 40% · Top 24: 83%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Javonte Williams #46 in 1QB and #58 in Superflex, RB18 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#46
RB18 · tier 14 · of 300
Superflex
#58
RB18 · tier 11 · of 307
- Last season 225.3 pts 14.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.12
pick 24.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.01
half of simulations take him by pick 25
Draft range
2.08 - 3.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.01 in 50% of simulations
Pick 25 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 4.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 3.01 50% · 4.12 <1% · 5.01 <1% · 6.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.10 and 3.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.11 | 68% |
| 2.12 | 59% |
| 3.01 | 50% |
| 3.02 | 40% |
| 3.03 | 30% |
| 3.04 | 22% |
| 3.05 | 14% |
| 3.06 | 10% |
| 3.07 | 7% |
| 3.08 | 5% |
| 3.09 | 3% |
| 3.10 | 2% |
| 3.11 | 2% |
| 3.12 | 1% |
| 4.01 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 8% | 835 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 9% | 912 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 9% | 923 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 9% | 894 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 10% | 1021 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 10% | 960 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 8% | 835 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 7% | 744 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Javonte Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 10%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 9%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 8%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7%
Usually taken just after
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 9%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 8%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 7%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Javonte Williams was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.