PIT · Bye 9 · Rookie
Eli Heidenreich
Eli Heidenreich comes off the board at 4.02 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 4.03.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Eli Heidenreich has averaged -2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 0.0 | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Eli Heidenreich #256 in 1QB and #262 in Superflex, RB71 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#256
RB71 · tier 60 · of 297 · rookie 45 of 52
Superflex
#262
RB71 · tier 53 · of 303 · rookie 47 of 52
- Draft capital Round 7, pick 230 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.02
pick 38.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.03
half of simulations take him by pick 39
Draft range
3.05 - 4.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,117 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Eli Heidenreich.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.03 in 57% of simulations
Pick 39 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.09 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.01 | 67% |
| 4.02 | 62% |
| 4.03 | 57% |
| 4.04 | 52% |
| 4.05 | 47% |
| 4.06 | 42% |
| 4.07 | 37% |
| 4.08 | 32% |
| 4.09 | 27% |
| 4.10 | 22% |
| 4.11 | 17% |
| 4.12 | 13% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 310 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9117 simulations in which Eli Heidenreich was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 4%
- Adam Randall RB · BAL 4%
- Seth McGowan RB · IND 4%
- Kaytron Allen RB · WAS 4%
Usually taken just after
- Seth McGowan RB · IND 5%
- Kaytron Allen RB · WAS 4%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 4%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Eli Heidenreich was selected in 9117 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.