MIA · Bye 6
Ollie Gordon II
LMD RB Tier 5 for Week 9 · 12.6 projected Half PPR points · RB19 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.6 points this week, RB Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.2 - 24.0 points. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 55% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 5
11.6 - 12.6 projected points
Rest of season
RB19
34th by projected points
Projected
12.6
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
31%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 55% at RB
Movement
↑ 6
RB20 in Week 8, RB14 now
Should you start Ollie Gordon II in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Ollie Gordon II RB14 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 55% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB14 vs RB30 +16
LMD has him RB14. The fantasy draft market has him RB30, 16 places lower.
Recent usage above his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.37 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.97 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Malik Willis Calls Out Ollie Gordon After Dolphins Loss
dolphinstalk.com ·
-
STATUS
Ollie Gordon II was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Ollie Gordon, Jaylen Wright Ready to Take Over After De’Von Achane Injury
dolphinstalk.com ·
-
Dolphins Need Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon to Step Up Without De’Von Achane
dolphinstalk.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Ollie Gordon II by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Ollie Gordon II has averaged +4.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LV | 2.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 2.0 | 0.7 | -1.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 1.9 | 13.0 | +11.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ MIN | 6.3 | 17.0 | +10.7 |
| Wk 5 | vs CIN | 8.7 | 14.8 | +6.1 |
| Wk 7 | @ NYJ | 9.4 | 16.8 | +7.4 |
| Wk 8 | vs NE | 11.5 | 6.9 | -4.6 |
| Wk 9 | vs DET | 12.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 113.8 points this season, RB19. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 72% of simulated seasons. That is 12.2 a game over 9.871 remaining games.
Per game
12.2 / game
Over 9.871 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 72%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Ollie Gordon II #176 in 1QB and #178 in Superflex, RB47 at his position. Age 22.
1QB
#176
RB47 · tier 40 · of 300
Superflex
#178
RB47 · tier 33 · of 307
- Last season 50.6 pts 3.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 2% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.09
pick 165.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.09
half of simulations take him by pick 165
Draft range
13.11 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,304 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Ollie Gordon II.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.09 in 65% of simulations
Pick 165 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 15.04, where he is available in 46% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 14.09 65% · 15.04 46%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.03 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.07 | 71% |
| 14.08 | 68% |
| 14.09 | 65% |
| 14.10 | 62% |
| 14.11 | 60% |
| 14.12 | 57% |
| 15.01 | 54% |
| 15.02 | 51% |
| 15.03 | 48% |
| 15.04 | 46% |
| 15.05 | 43% |
| 15.06 | 40% |
| 15.07 | 38% |
| 15.08 | 36% |
| 15.09 | 34% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.11 | 2% | 241 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12 | 2% | 235 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 3% | 313 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 3% | 270 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 251 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 3% | 251 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 191 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7304 simulations in which Ollie Gordon II was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Xavier Legette WR · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Zachariah Branch WR · ATL 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Ollie Gordon II was selected in 7304 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.