LMD Fantasy Support LMD
RB

BAL · Bye 13

Derrick Henry

LMD RB Tier 4 for Week 9 · 11.6 projected Standard points · RB20 rest of season

Regular season

Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 11.6 points this week, RB Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.0 - 21.5 points. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 57% of simulated weeks.

Week 9

RB Tier 4

10.7 - 12.2 projected points

Rest of season

RB20

27th by projected points

Projected

11.6

week 9, Standard

Top 12

32%

Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 57% at RB

Movement

↓ 8

RB5 in Week 8, RB13 now

Should you start Derrick Henry in Week 9?

Start

Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Derrick Henry RB13 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 57% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

RB13 vs RB7 -6

LMD has him RB13. The fantasy draft market has him RB7, 6 places higher.

Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.

Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All RB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Derrick Henry by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 8 completed games Derrick Henry has averaged +0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Derrick Henry, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ IND 11.5 34.3 +22.8
Wk 2 vs NO 14.6 14.7 +0.1
Wk 3 @ DAL 16.4 20.9 +4.5
Wk 4 vs TEN 16.0 13.9 -2.1
Wk 5 @ ATL 15.1 20.0 +4.9
Wk 6 @ CLE 16.4 4.0 -12.4
Wk 7 vs CIN 14.0 4.9 -9.1
Wk 8 @ BUF 13.6 12.0 -1.6
Wk 9 vs JAX 11.6 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at RB4. For the rest of the season LMD has him 16 spots lower, at RB20.

Preseason market: RB4 · ADP 6.1

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

RB20 −16

LMD has him 16 spots lower than his RB4 draft price.

Week 9

RB13 −9

LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB4 draft price.

Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

RB4 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 98.3 points this season, RB20. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 66% of simulated seasons. That is 11.2 a game over 9 remaining games.

Per game

11.2 / game

Over 9 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 66%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB

Market input

broad

Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Derrick Henry #22 in 1QB and #31 in Superflex, RB11 at his position. Age 32.

1QB

#22

RB11 · tier 9 · of 300

Superflex

#31

RB11 · tier 8 · of 307

  • Last season 272.0 pts 16.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 19.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

1.07

pick 7.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

1.07

half of simulations take him by pick 7

Draft range

1.05 - 1.09

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard also published: Half PPR, Full PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 1.07 in 74% of simulations

Pick 7 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 2.06, where he is available in 0% of simulations.

Slot 7's remaining turns: 1.07 74% · 2.06 0%

The middle half of simulations take him between 1.06 and 1.08.

Derrick Henry still on the board
PickAvailable
1.05 95%
1.06 88%
1.07 74%
1.08 42%
1.09 15%
1.10 4%
1.11 1%
1.12 <1%
2.01 <1%
2.02 <1%
2.03 <1%
2.04 0%
2.05 0%
2.06 0%
2.07 0%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Derrick Henry was selected at each pick, 1.02 through 1.11. He goes earlier than this window in <1%, later in <1%.
Draft position distribution for Derrick Henry
PickShare of simulationsCount
1.02<1%38 of 10000 simulations
1.03<1%97 of 10000 simulations
1.044%357 of 10000 simulations
1.057%665 of 10000 simulations
1.0614%1382 of 10000 simulations
1.0733%3269 of 10000 simulations
1.0827%2696 of 10000 simulations
1.0911%1076 of 10000 simulations
1.103%272 of 10000 simulations
1.11<1%66 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Derrick Henry was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Derrick Henry was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
November 5, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.