JAX · Bye 7
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
LMD RB Tier 8 for Week 9 · 5.1 projected Standard points · RB50 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.1 points this week, RB Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.6 - 10.6 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 8
4.0 - 5.4 projected points
Rest of season
RB50
120th by projected points
Projected
5.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 19% at RB
Movement
↓ 4
RB41 in Week 8, RB45 now
Should you start Chris Rodriguez Jr. in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB45 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 19% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB45 vs RB56 +11
LMD has him RB45. The fantasy draft market has him RB56, 11 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline and recent usage above his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.00 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Chris Rodriguez Jr. is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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Fantasy Football Injury Impact: With Bhayshul Tuten Being A Game-Time Call, Scoop Up Chris Rodriguez Jr
Sports Illustrated ·
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Why Bhayshul Tuten should not cede any Jaguars RB work to Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Sporting News ·
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ADP UPDATE
Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 155.3 to 147.8 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chris Rodriguez Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Chris Rodriguez Jr. has averaged +2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 3.1 | 2.3 | -0.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 2.9 | 1.3 | -1.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 3.9 | 9.7 | +5.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 4.0 | 9.5 | +5.5 |
| Wk 5 | vs PHI | 4.6 | 1.1 | -3.5 |
| Wk 6 | vs HOU | 3.7 | 5.5 | +1.8 |
| Wk 8 | vs IND | 5.0 | 11.8 | +6.8 |
| Wk 9 | @ BAL | 5.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB45. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots lower, at RB50.
Preseason market: RB45 · ADP 146.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB50 −5
LMD has him 5 spots lower than his RB45 draft price.
Week 9
RB45 Even
Level with his RB45 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB45 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 51.4 points this season, RB50. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 5.2 a game over 9.933 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.2 / game
Over 9.933 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chris Rodriguez Jr. #278 in 1QB and #277 in Superflex, RB77 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#278
RB77 · tier 67 · of 300
Superflex
#277
RB77 · tier 57 · of 307
- Last season 90.5 pts 7.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 58% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 1% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 177.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 178
Draft range
15.07 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,094 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in 95% of simulations
Pick 178 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.09 and 15.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | 99% |
| 15.09 | 97% |
| 15.10 | 95% |
| 15.11 | 93% |
| 15.12 | 91% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 10 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 32 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1094 simulations in which Chris Rodriguez Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 3%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 3%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 3%
Usually taken just after
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 3%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was selected in 1094 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.