NYJ · Bye 13
Braelon Allen
LMD RB Tier 4 for Week 9 · 11.1 projected Standard points · RB15 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.1 points this week, RB Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.1 - 20.3 points. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 29% · Top 24: 54% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 4
10.7 - 12.2 projected points
Rest of season
RB15
19th by projected points
Projected
11.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
29%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 54% at RB
Movement
↑ 4
RB20 in Week 8, RB16 now
Should you start Braelon Allen in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Braelon Allen RB16 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 54% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB16 vs RB43 +27
LMD has him RB16. The fantasy draft market has him RB43, 27 places lower.
Our projection is higher than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Strong positive+3.56 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-0.93 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.03 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Jets face a 'great problem' in their backfield as Breece Hall nears return and Braelon Allen surges
theday.com ·
-
Week 9 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Breece Hall Vs Braelon Allen
Sports Illustrated ·
-
STATUS
Braelon Allen is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Jets’ Braelon Allen upgraded on injury report before Raiders game, but Breece Hall is not
clutchpoints.com ·
-
Fantasy Football Impact: Breece Hall Practices While Braelon Allen Pops Up With A New Injury
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Braelon Allen by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Braelon Allen has averaged +3.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 2.7 | 4.0 | +1.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 3.8 | 7.5 | +3.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 4.0 | 1.7 | -2.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ CHI | 7.2 | 6.7 | -0.5 |
| Wk 5 | vs CLE | 8.8 | 17.6 | +8.8 |
| Wk 6 | @ NE | 9.9 | 10.4 | +0.5 |
| Wk 7 | vs MIA | 9.0 | 13.4 | +4.4 |
| Wk 8 | vs LV | 10.7 | 21.3 | +10.6 |
| Wk 9 | @ KC | 11.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 108.7 points this season, RB15. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 82% of simulated seasons. That is 11.2 a game over 9 remaining games.
Per game
11.2 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 82%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Braelon Allen #305 in Superflex. Age 22.
1QB
--
Not ranked on this board
Superflex
#305
RB85 · tier 70 · of 307
- Last season 14.3 pts 3.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 52% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.08
pick 175.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.08
half of simulations take him by pick 176
Draft range
15.03 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,208 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.08 in 90% of simulations
Pick 176 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.05 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.06 | 94% |
| 15.07 | 92% |
| 15.08 | 90% |
| 15.09 | 87% |
| 15.10 | 85% |
| 15.11 | 83% |
| 15.12 | 80% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 1% | 115 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 247 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2208 simulations in which Braelon Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 3%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 3%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Braelon Allen was selected in 2208 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.