NO · Bye 8
Alvin Kamara
LMD RB34 for Week 3 · 6.9 projected Standard points · RB35 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.9 points this week, RB34. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 30% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 23 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB34
71st by projected points
Rest of season
RB35
75th by projected points
Projected
6.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
13%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 30% at RB
Movement
↑ 23
RB57 in Week 2, RB34 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.59 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Alvin Kamara has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 2.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 3.0 | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 6.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 101.5 points this season, RB35. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 11% of simulated seasons. That is 6.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 22 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 11%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Alvin Kamara #216 in 1QB and #217 in Superflex, RB56 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#216
RB56 · tier 47 · of 297
Superflex
#217
RB56 · tier 40 · of 303
- Last season 84.2 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 72% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.07
pick 163.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.01
half of simulations take him by pick 169
Draft range
12.10 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,425 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.01 in 75% of simulations
Pick 169 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.11 | 77% |
| 14.12 | 76% |
| 15.01 | 75% |
| 15.02 | 73% |
| 15.03 | 70% |
| 15.04 | 68% |
| 15.05 | 65% |
| 15.06 | 63% |
| 15.07 | 60% |
| 15.08 | 58% |
| 15.09 | 56% |
| 15.10 | 53% |
| 15.11 | 51% |
| 15.12 | 48% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10-12.11 | 7% | 727 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 37 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 122 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 116 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 135 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 139 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5425 simulations in which Alvin Kamara was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 3%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Alvin Kamara was selected in 5425 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.