NO · Bye 8
Alvin Kamara
LMD RB Tier 7 for Week 9 · 6.6 projected Standard points · RB41 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.6 points this week, RB Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.8 - 13.7 points. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 27% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 9
RB Tier 7
5.6 - 6.8 projected points
Rest of season
RB41
84th by projected points
Projected
6.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 27% at RB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at RB in Week 8
Should you start Alvin Kamara in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Alvin Kamara RB37 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 27% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.64 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Alvin Kamara was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Alvin Kamara left stunned by ‘crazy’ amount Chris Olave spent whilst shopping in Paris
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Chris Olave set to play, Alvin Kamara questionable for Saints
NBC Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Alvin Kamara by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Alvin Kamara has averaged +1.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 2.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 3.0 | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 6.9 | 4.1 | -2.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 7.4 | 17.8 | +10.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs MIN | 7.3 | 0.6 | -6.7 |
| Wk 6 | @ NYG | 6.6 | 12.9 | +6.3 |
| Wk 7 | vs PIT | 5.1 | 6.2 | +1.1 |
| Wk 9 | vs CLE | 6.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 62.8 points this season, RB41. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 6% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 9.95 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.6 / game
Over 9.95 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 6%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Alvin Kamara #216 in 1QB and #217 in Superflex, RB57 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#216
RB57 · tier 47 · of 300
Superflex
#217
RB57 · tier 40 · of 307
- Last season 84.2 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 72% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.07
pick 163.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.01
half of simulations take him by pick 169
Draft range
12.10 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,441 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.01 in 75% of simulations
Pick 169 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.11 | 76% |
| 14.12 | 76% |
| 15.01 | 75% |
| 15.02 | 72% |
| 15.03 | 70% |
| 15.04 | 68% |
| 15.05 | 65% |
| 15.06 | 63% |
| 15.07 | 60% |
| 15.08 | 58% |
| 15.09 | 55% |
| 15.10 | 53% |
| 15.11 | 51% |
| 15.12 | 48% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10-12.11 | 7% | 728 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 145 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 505 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5441 simulations in which Alvin Kamara was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Alvin Kamara was selected in 5441 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.