KC · Bye 5
Kenneth Walker III
LMD RB Tier 2 for Week 9 · 16.4 projected Standard points · RB2 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 16.4 points this week, RB Tier 2. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 5.8 - 30.0 points. Top 3: 20% · Top 12: 54% · Top 24: 77% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 2
14.8 - 16.4 projected points
Rest of season
RB2
2nd by projected points
Projected
16.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
54%
Top 3: 20% · Top 24: 77% at RB
Movement
—
Unchanged: RB2 in Week 8
Should you start Kenneth Walker III in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Kenneth Walker III RB2 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 77% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.02 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+1.00 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.87 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Kenneth Walker III, Week 7 Fantasy Busts Not to Panic Over
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Kenneth Walker III breaks silence on why he snubbed former teammates in Chiefs’ loss to Seahawks
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Where Does Kenneth Walker III Rank Among NFL MVP Candidates?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Mike Vorel: Kenneth Walker III was the story, until Jaxon Smith-Njigba stole the show
thebrunswicknews.com ·
-
Seahawks prepare to face former teammate Kenneth Walker III while Zach Charbonnet could return
kctv5.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kenneth Walker III by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Kenneth Walker III has averaged +5.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 8.9 | 31.1 | +22.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 11.5 | 17.8 | +6.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 16.3 | 19.3 | +3.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 15.9 | 29.9 | +14.0 |
| Wk 6 | vs LAC | 18.1 | 25.9 | +7.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ SEA | 15.6 | 5.7 | -9.9 |
| Wk 8 | @ DEN | 15.9 | 8.4 | -7.5 |
| Wk 9 | vs NYJ | 16.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB10. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots higher, at RB2.
Preseason market: RB10 · ADP 17.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB2 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his RB10 draft price.
Week 9
RB2 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his RB10 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 154.0 points this season, RB2. Top 3: 44% · Top 12: 90% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 16.3 a game over 10.016 remaining games.
Per game
16.3 / game
Over 10.016 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 44% · Top 12: 90% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kenneth Walker III #59 in 1QB and #67 in Superflex, RB21 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#59
RB21 · tier 16 · of 300
Superflex
#67
RB21 · tier 13 · of 307
- Last season 176.4 pts 10.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.05
pick 17.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.05
half of simulations take him by pick 17
Draft range
2.01 - 2.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.05 in 58% of simulations
Pick 17 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 3.08, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 2.05 58% · 3.08 <1% · 4.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.03 and 2.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.03 | 80% |
| 2.04 | 69% |
| 2.05 | 58% |
| 2.06 | 47% |
| 2.07 | 35% |
| 2.08 | 22% |
| 2.09 | 12% |
| 2.10 | 6% |
| 2.11 | 3% |
| 2.12 | 2% |
| 3.01 | 1% |
| 3.02 | <1% |
| 3.03 | <1% |
| 3.04 | <1% |
| 3.05 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 8% | 752 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 11% | 1061 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 12% | 1176 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 10% | 1026 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 13% | 1255 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 13% | 1288 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 10% | 974 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 6% | 644 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Kenneth Walker III was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 11%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 11%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 9%
- Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 9%
Usually taken just after
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 11%
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 10%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 10%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 8%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kenneth Walker III was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.