SF · Bye 8 · Rookie
Kaelon Black
LMD RB Tier 8 for Week 9 · 6.3 projected Half PPR points · RB48 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.3 points this week, RB Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.2 - 12.6 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 21% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 8
6.2 - 7.6 projected points
Rest of season
RB48
131st by projected points
Projected
6.3
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 21% at RB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at RB in Week 8
Should you start Kaelon Black in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Kaelon Black RB41 for Week 9, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 21% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB41 vs RB53 +12
LMD has him RB41. The fantasy draft market has him RB53, 12 places lower.
Recent usage above his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.34 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.52 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Kaelon Black has averaged -0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 2.3 | 7.5 | +5.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 5.0 | 2.5 | -2.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 6.0 | 1.7 | -4.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs DEN | 4.6 | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Wk 5 | @ SEA | 4.2 | 1.6 | -2.6 |
| Wk 6 | vs WAS | 4.3 | 4.2 | -0.1 |
| Wk 7 | @ ATL | 4.7 | 10.4 | +5.7 |
| Wk 9 | vs LV | 6.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 57.8 points this season, RB48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 6.3 a game over 9.923 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.3 / game
Over 9.923 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kaelon Black #138 in 1QB and #139 in Superflex, RB38 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#138
RB38 · tier 31 · of 300 · rookie 14 of 52
Superflex
#139
RB38 · tier 25 · of 307 · rookie 14 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 90 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.04
pick 136.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.03
half of simulations take him by pick 135
Draft range
10.11 - 14.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,975 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Kaelon Black.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.03 in 52% of simulations
Pick 135 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 13.10, where he is available in 14% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 12.03 52% · 13.10 14% · 14.03 8% · 15.10 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.05 and 13.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.01 | 57% |
| 12.02 | 55% |
| 12.03 | 52% |
| 12.04 | 50% |
| 12.05 | 47% |
| 12.06 | 45% |
| 12.07 | 42% |
| 12.08 | 39% |
| 12.09 | 37% |
| 12.10 | 35% |
| 12.11 | 33% |
| 12.12 | 31% |
| 13.01 | 29% |
| 13.02 | 27% |
| 13.03 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | 4% | 401 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | 1% | 102 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9975 simulations in which Kaelon Black was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 2%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kaelon Black was selected in 9975 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.