SF · Bye 8 · Rookie
Kaelon Black
LMD RB43 for Week 3 · 7.0 projected Full PPR points · RB44 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.0 points this week, RB43. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 22% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 7 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB43
130th by projected points
Rest of season
RB44
147th by projected points
Projected
7.0
week 3, Full PPR
Top 12
8%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 22% at RB
Movement
↓ 7
RB36 in Week 2, RB43 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.44 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.10 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Kaelon Black has averaged +1.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 2.6 | 8.0 | +5.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 5.4 | 2.5 | -2.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 7.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB63. For the rest of the season LMD has him 19 spots higher, at RB44.
Preseason market: RB63 · ADP 166.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB44 +19
LMD has him 19 spots higher than his RB63 draft price.
Week 3
RB43 +20
LMD has him 20 spots higher than his RB63 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB63 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 102.9 points this season, RB44. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 2 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kaelon Black #138 in 1QB and #139 in Superflex, RB38 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#138
RB38 · tier 31 · of 297 · rookie 14 of 52
Superflex
#139
RB38 · tier 25 · of 303 · rookie 14 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 90 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.01
pick 169.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
13.12 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,465 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Kaelon Black.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 88% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.09 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 90% |
| 15.03 | 89% |
| 15.04 | 88% |
| 15.05 | 87% |
| 15.06 | 85% |
| 15.07 | 84% |
| 15.08 | 82% |
| 15.09 | 81% |
| 15.10 | 79% |
| 15.11 | 78% |
| 15.12 | 77% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.12 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 37 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 54 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 72 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 60 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 57 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 1% | 148 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 151 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2465 simulations in which Kaelon Black was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Denver Broncos DST · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kaelon Black was selected in 2465 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.