DEN · Bye 10 · Rookie
Jonah Coleman
LMD RB Tier 5 for Week 9 · 10.1 projected Standard points · RB26 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.1 points this week, RB Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 3.1 - 20.0 points. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 47% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
RB Tier 5
9.0 - 10.2 projected points
Rest of season
RB26
45th by projected points
Projected
10.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 47% at RB
Movement
↑ 14
RB35 in Week 8, RB21 now
Should you start Jonah Coleman in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jonah Coleman RB21 for Week 9, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 47% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB21 vs RB42 +21
LMD has him RB21. The fantasy draft market has him RB42, 21 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.02 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.59 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.80 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Broncos vs. Panthers updated predictions: Bo Nix, Jonah Coleman look to build on comeback over Chiefs
oregonlive.com ·
-
With RJ Harvey sidelined, Jonah Coleman ready to carry the load
gazette.com ·
-
Broncos’ Jonah Coleman could see bigger workload against Chiefs with RJ Harvey out
denverpost.com ·
-
Week 8 Fantasy Football Running Back Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Jonah Coleman vs. J.K. Dobbins vs. RJ Harvey
newspub.live ·
-
STATUS
Jonah Coleman is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jonah Coleman by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jonah Coleman has averaged +3.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 2.3 | 0.0 | -2.3 |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 11.8 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 4.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 7 | @ ARI | 2.6 | 6.9 | +4.3 |
| Wk 8 | vs KC | 7.7 | 16.4 | +8.7 |
| Wk 9 | @ CAR | 10.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 83.6 points this season, RB26. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 38% of simulated seasons. That is 10.0 a game over 8.859 remaining games. Up 8 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
10.0 / game
Over 8.859 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 38%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jonah Coleman #151 in 1QB and #154 in Superflex, RB44 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#151
RB44 · tier 34 · of 300 · rookie 15 of 52
Superflex
#154
RB44 · tier 28 · of 307 · rookie 15 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 108 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.03
pick 158.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.07
half of simulations take him by pick 163
Draft range
12.07 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,198 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.07 in 69% of simulations
Pick 163 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 15.06, where he is available in 54% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 14.07 69% · 15.06 54%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 15.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.05 | 70% |
| 14.06 | 70% |
| 14.07 | 69% |
| 14.08 | 69% |
| 14.09 | 68% |
| 14.10 | 68% |
| 14.11 | 67% |
| 14.12 | 66% |
| 15.01 | 65% |
| 15.02 | 63% |
| 15.03 | 61% |
| 15.04 | 59% |
| 15.05 | 56% |
| 15.06 | 54% |
| 15.07 | 52% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.07-12.08 | 8% | 756 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 7% | 747 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 7% | 736 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 15 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 31 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 60 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 113 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 119 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | <1% | 83 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 1% | 123 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09-15.10 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6198 simulations in which Jonah Coleman was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 3%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 3%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Usually taken just after
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jonah Coleman was selected in 6198 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.