DEN · Bye 10 · Rookie
Jonah Coleman
LMD RB54 for Week 3 · 3.8 projected Standard points · RB53 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.8 points this week, RB54. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 12% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
RB54
162nd by projected points
Rest of season
RB53
154th by projected points
Projected
3.8
week 3, Standard
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 12% at RB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at RB in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.65 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-0.63 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Jonah Coleman's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 149.1 to 164.4 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Jonah Coleman has averaged -2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 2.3 | 0.0 | -2.3 |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 11.8 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 3.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 66.7 points this season, RB53. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.8 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
3.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jonah Coleman #151 in 1QB and #154 in Superflex, RB44 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#151
RB44 · tier 34 · of 297 · rookie 15 of 52
Superflex
#154
RB44 · tier 28 · of 303 · rookie 15 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 108 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.03
pick 158.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.07
half of simulations take him by pick 163
Draft range
12.07 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,289 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.07 in 69% of simulations
Pick 163 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 15.06, where he is available in 54% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 14.07 69% · 15.06 54%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 15.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.05 | 70% |
| 14.06 | 70% |
| 14.07 | 69% |
| 14.08 | 68% |
| 14.09 | 68% |
| 14.10 | 67% |
| 14.11 | 67% |
| 14.12 | 66% |
| 15.01 | 65% |
| 15.02 | 63% |
| 15.03 | 61% |
| 15.04 | 58% |
| 15.05 | 56% |
| 15.06 | 54% |
| 15.07 | 51% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.07-12.08 | 8% | 761 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 7% | 741 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 7% | 733 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 17 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 23 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 37 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 58 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 116 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 1% | 101 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 120 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09-15.10 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6289 simulations in which Jonah Coleman was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 3%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 3%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 3%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jonah Coleman was selected in 6289 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.