NFL · 2026 Week 1

2026 Week 1 Standard TE Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published September 9, 2026, 18:40 UTC · first kickoff September 10, 2026, 00:20 UTC

Standard, 1QB · 39 players projected · updated September 9, 2026

Week 1 starts from preseason projections and draft position, with current availability and market signals layered in.

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 1 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.

This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3: how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12: how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24: how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

What stood out in Week 1

39 TEs ranked for Week 1. Brock Bowers leads at 8.3 projected points.

Biggest differences from the draft market

Ahead

Mark AndrewsTE10Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 11% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 63% +4 vs. TE14
Brenton StrangeTE17Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 53% +4 vs. TE21

Behind

Kenyon SadiqTE30Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 26% -11 vs. TE19
Dawson KnoxTE36Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -9 vs. TE27
Travis KelceTE15Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 7% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 58% -5 vs. TE10

2026 Week 1 Standard TE Rankings -- Standard scoring: projected fantasy points and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
#	Pos	Player	Pos rank	Proj	Outcome profile	Top 3	Top 12	Top 24
1	TE	Brock BowersLV Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 29% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 12%. Top 3: 29%Top 12: 58%Top 24: 88%	TE1	8.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 29% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 12%.	29%	58%	88%
2	TE	Trey McBrideARI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 26% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 13%. Top 3: 26%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 87%	TE2	7.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 26% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 13%.	26%	57%	87%
3	TE	Colston LovelandCHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 17%. Top 3: 20%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 83%	TE3	6.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 17%.	20%	49%	83%
4	TE	Tyler WarrenINDQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 25%. Top 3: 19%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 75%	TE4	6.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 25%.	19%	44%	75%
5	TE	Kyle PittsATL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 35%, and outside the top 24 24%. Top 3: 14%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 76%	TE5	5.5	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 35%, and outside the top 24 24%.	14%	41%	76%
6	TE	Sam LaPortaDETQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 35%. Top 3: 13%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 65%	TE6	5.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 35%.	13%	35%	65%
7	TE	George KittleSFQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 35%. Top 3: 12%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 65%	TE7	4.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 35%.	12%	34%	65%
8	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 36%, and outside the top 24 31%. Top 3: 11%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 69%	TE8	4.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 36%, and outside the top 24 31%.	11%	33%	69%
9	TE	Dallas GoedertPHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 35%. Top 3: 11%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 65%	TE9	4.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 35%.	11%	32%	65%
10	TE	Mark AndrewsBAL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 37%. Top 3: 11%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 63%	TE10	4.5	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 37%.	11%	31%	63%
11	TE	Tucker KraftGBQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 41%. Top 3: 9%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 59%	TE11	4.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 41%.	9%	28%	59%
12	TE	Jake FergusonDAL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 43%. Top 3: 8%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 57%	TE12	4.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 43%.	8%	27%	57%
13	TE	Isaiah LikelyNYG Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 39%. Top 3: 8%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 61%	TE13	4.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 39%.	8%	26%	61%
14	TE	Dalton KincaidBUF Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 40%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 60%	TE14	3.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 40%.	7%	26%	60%
15	TE	Travis KelceKC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 42%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 58%	TE15	3.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 42%.	7%	25%	58%
16	TE	Hunter HenryNE Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 46%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 54%	TE16	3.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 46%.	7%	23%	54%
17	TE	Brenton StrangeJAX Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 47%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 53%	TE17	3.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 47%.	5%	21%	53%
18	TE	Terrance FergusonLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 55%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 45%	TE18	3.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 55%.	5%	19%	45%
19	TE	T.J. HockensonMIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 51%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 50%	TE19	3.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 51%.	5%	19%	50%
20	TE	Dalton SchultzHOU Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 50%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 50%	TE20	3.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 50%.	5%	20%	50%
21	TE	Juwan JohnsonNO Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 51%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 49%	TE21	3.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 51%.	4%	19%	49%
22	TE	Pat FreiermuthPIT Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 55%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 45%	TE22	3.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 55%.	4%	18%	45%
23	TE	AJ BarnerSEA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 61%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 39%	TE23	2.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 61%.	4%	16%	39%
24	TE	Gunnar HelmTEN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 64%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 36%	TE24	2.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 64%.	3%	14%	36%
25	TE	Greg DulcichMIA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 58%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 42%	TE25	2.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 58%.	2%	13%	42%
26	TE	Chig OkonkwoWAS Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 59%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 41%	TE26	2.5	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 59%.	2%	12%	41%
27	TE	Darren WallerCAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 26%	TE27	2.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%.	3%	13%	26%
28	TE	David NjokuLAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 75%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 25%	TE28	2.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 75%.	3%	13%	25%
29	TE	Mike GesickiCIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 28%	TE29	2.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%.	3%	12%	28%
30	TE	Kenyon SadiqNYJQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 26%	TE30	2.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%.	3%	12%	26%
31	TE	Cade OttonTB Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 70%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 30%	TE31	2.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 70%.	2%	10%	30%
32	TE	Darnell WashingtonPIT Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24%	TE32	2.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%.	2%	10%	24%
33	TE	Michael MayerLV Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 25%	TE33	2.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%.	2%	9%	25%
34	TE	Mason TaylorNYJ Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 24%	TE34	1.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%.	2%	8%	24%
35	TE	Colby ParkinsonLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22%	TE35	1.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%.	2%	10%	22%
36	TE	Dawson KnoxBUF Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 80%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 20%	TE36	1.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 80%.	2%	9%	20%
37	TE	Evan EngramDEN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 19%	TE37	1.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%.	1%	7%	19%
38	TE	Oronde Gadsden IILAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 84%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 16%	TE38	1.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 84%.	1%	9%	16%
39	TE	Cole KmetCHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17%	TE39	1.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%.	1%	7%	17%

How these are made

This board was built from draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 64%, sportsbook props for 30%, an official status for 85%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 9, 2026 18:39 UTC. Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-09.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); Polymarket (prediction-market prices); The Odds API (player props).

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