CHI · Bye 10
Colston Loveland
LMD TE Tier 3 for Week 9 · 7.6 projected Standard points · TE7 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.6 points this week, TE Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.2 - 16.0 points. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 69% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 3
7.6 projected points
Rest of season
TE7
76th by projected points
Projected
7.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
39%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 69% at TE
Movement
—
Unchanged: TE4 in Week 8
Should you start Colston Loveland in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Colston Loveland TE4 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 39% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.37 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.17 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Behind Caleb Williams’ blossoming connection with his Big 3: Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III
chicagotribune.com ·
-
Seven receptions for Colston Loveland on Monday night
Yahoo Sports ·
-
STATUS
Colston Loveland is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Bears TE Colston Loveland active for MNF, RB Kyle Monangai out again
lufkindailynews.com ·
-
Colston Loveland good to go, Kyle Monangai ruled out in Bears’ latest Week 8 injury report
clutchpoints.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Colston Loveland by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Colston Loveland has averaged -0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CAR | 6.8 | 0.0 | -6.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIN | 6.9 | 0.3 | -6.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 5.0 | 3.1 | -1.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs NYJ | 5.0 | 5.7 | +0.7 |
| Wk 5 | @ GB | 5.7 | 1.9 | -3.8 |
| Wk 6 | @ ATL | 5.2 | 12.5 | +7.3 |
| Wk 7 | vs NE | 6.5 | 12.9 | +6.4 |
| Wk 8 | @ SEA | 6.7 | 4.5 | -2.2 |
| Wk 9 | vs TB | 7.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE3. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots lower, at TE7.
Preseason market: TE3 · ADP 69.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE7 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his TE3 draft price.
Week 9
TE4 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his TE3 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE3 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 66.1 points this season, TE7. Top 3: 15% · Top 12: 63% · Top 24: 92% of simulated seasons. That is 7.3 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.3 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 15% · Top 12: 63% · Top 24: 92%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Colston Loveland #42 in 1QB and #45 in Superflex, TE5 at his position. Age 22.
1QB
#42
TE5 · tier 13 · of 300
Superflex
#45
TE5 · tier 10 · of 307
- Last season 136.1 pts 8.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.10
pick 70.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.11
half of simulations take him by pick 71
Draft range
5.10 - 7.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.11 in 52% of simulations
Pick 71 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 7.02, where he is available in 39% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 6.11 52% · 7.02 39% · 8.11 <1% · 9.02 <1% · 10.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.04 and 7.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.09 | 60% |
| 6.10 | 56% |
| 6.11 | 52% |
| 6.12 | 48% |
| 7.01 | 44% |
| 7.02 | 39% |
| 7.03 | 34% |
| 7.04 | 29% |
| 7.05 | 25% |
| 7.06 | 21% |
| 7.07 | 17% |
| 7.08 | 14% |
| 7.09 | 12% |
| 7.10 | 9% |
| 7.11 | 7% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 1% | 141 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 2% | 168 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 2% | 192 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05 | 4% | 402 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Colston Loveland was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 3%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
Usually taken just after
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 3%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 3%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 3%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Colston Loveland was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.