NYG · Bye 8
Isaiah Likely
LMD TE Tier 3 for Week 9 · 7.6 projected Standard points · TE4 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.6 points this week, TE Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.1 - 15.6 points. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 67% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 3
7.6 projected points
Rest of season
TE4
60th by projected points
Projected
7.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
39%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 67% at TE
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at TE in Week 8
Should you start Isaiah Likely in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Isaiah Likely TE5 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 39% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.33 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Giants’ Isaiah Likely drops ‘more the merrier’ admission on New York’s potential trades
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Week 9 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings: Isaiah Likely Is Back, And Eli Raridon Is A Sleeper
Sports Illustrated ·
-
J.J. McCarthy named starter for Giants: What could it mean for the fantasy outlooks of Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Week 7 WR/TE Target Report and Fantasy Football Value: Is Isaiah Likely a Top-3 TE? Is Matthew Golden a WR1?
Sports Illustrated ·
-
"Gave us a fighting chance to win": Isaiah Likely makes feelings known on J.J. McCarthy outperforming Jameis Winston in only 1 quarter
sportskeeda.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Isaiah Likely by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Isaiah Likely has averaged +3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 4.3 | 19.8 | +15.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAR | 5.2 | 3.3 | -1.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 7.4 | 1.3 | -6.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs ARI | 6.4 | 6.6 | +0.2 |
| Wk 5 | @ WAS | 6.8 | 21.4 | +14.6 |
| Wk 6 | vs NO | 9.3 | 17.9 | +8.6 |
| Wk 7 | @ HOU | 8.1 | 1.2 | -6.9 |
| Wk 9 | @ PHI | 7.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots higher, at TE4.
Preseason market: TE13 · ADP 133.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE4 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his TE13 draft price.
Week 9
TE5 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his TE13 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 73.2 points this season, TE4. Top 3: 25% · Top 12: 77% · Top 24: 97% of simulated seasons. That is 7.4 a game over 10.075 remaining games.
Per game
7.4 / game
Over 10.075 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 25% · Top 12: 77% · Top 24: 97%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Isaiah Likely #266 in 1QB and #273 in Superflex, TE44 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#266
TE44 · tier 62 · of 300
Superflex
#273
TE44 · tier 56 · of 307
- Last season 48.2 pts 4.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.09
pick 164.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.03
half of simulations take him by pick 171
Draft range
12.08 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,676 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.03 in 77% of simulations
Pick 171 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.01 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.01 | 81% |
| 15.02 | 79% |
| 15.03 | 77% |
| 15.04 | 75% |
| 15.05 | 72% |
| 15.06 | 70% |
| 15.07 | 67% |
| 15.08 | 65% |
| 15.09 | 63% |
| 15.10 | 60% |
| 15.11 | 58% |
| 15.12 | 56% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.08-12.09 | 2% | 223 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 26 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | <1% | 91 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 122 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10-15.11 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4676 simulations in which Isaiah Likely was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Isaiah Likely was selected in 4676 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.