DAL · Bye 14
Jake Ferguson
LMD TE18 for Week 3 · 4.6 projected Standard points · TE20 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.6 points this week, TE18. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 42% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE18
130th by projected points
Rest of season
TE20
148th by projected points
Projected
4.6
week 3, Standard
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 42% at TE
Movement
↑ 2
TE20 in Week 2, TE18 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.75 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Jake Ferguson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 146.7 to 151.8 over the last 7 days.
-
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Week 1 Start or Sit: A Fringe Starter at Best
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Dak Prescott Says Jake Ferguson Has Taken Another Major Step For Cowboys
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jake Ferguson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jake Ferguson has averaged +5.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 4.0 | 0.6 | -3.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 3.0 | 16.3 | +13.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 4.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 70.3 points this season, TE20. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 71% of simulated seasons. That is 4.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 9 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
4.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 71%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jake Ferguson #127 in 1QB and #126 in Superflex, TE11 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#127
TE11 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#126
TE11 · tier 22 · of 303
- Last season 147.1 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.03
pick 122.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.12
half of simulations take him by pick 120
Draft range
9.11 - 12.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,886 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.12 in 54% of simulations
Pick 120 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 11.01, where he is available in 50% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 10.12 54% · 11.01 50% · 12.12 6% · 13.01 6% · 14.12 4% · 15.01 4%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.04 and 11.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.10 | 60% |
| 10.11 | 57% |
| 10.12 | 54% |
| 11.01 | 50% |
| 11.02 | 48% |
| 11.03 | 45% |
| 11.04 | 42% |
| 11.05 | 39% |
| 11.06 | 37% |
| 11.07 | 34% |
| 11.08 | 31% |
| 11.09 | 29% |
| 11.10 | 26% |
| 11.11 | 24% |
| 11.12 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.11-9.12 | 6% | 602 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 6% | 565 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 6% | 623 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 4% | 404 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07 | 1% | 122 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9886 simulations in which Jake Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jake Ferguson was selected in 9886 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.