DAL · Bye 14
Jake Ferguson
LMD TE Tier 7 for Week 9 · 3.7 projected Standard points · TE36 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.7 points this week, TE Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.8 - 8.9 points. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 29% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 9
TE Tier 7
3.3 - 3.8 projected points
Rest of season
TE36
184th by projected points
Projected
3.7
week 9, Standard
Top 12
17%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 29% at TE
Movement
↑ 3
TE33 in Week 8, TE30 now
Should you start Jake Ferguson in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jake Ferguson TE30 for Week 9, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 17% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE30 vs TE18 -12
LMD has him TE30. The fantasy draft market has him TE18, 12 places higher.
Recent usage below his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.80 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.11 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Jake Ferguson was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Jake Ferguson gets good prognosis on ankle injury
Yahoo Sports ·
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Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson exits game vs. Cardinals, is questionable to return
dallasnews.com ·
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Jake Ferguson Injury Update: Latest News on Cowboys TE's Status in Week 8 Game
Sports Illustrated ·
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Jake Ferguson & the Best Under the Radar Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Start in Week 6
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jake Ferguson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Jake Ferguson has averaged -0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 4.0 | 0.6 | -3.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 3.0 | 16.3 | +13.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 4.9 | 6.3 | +1.4 |
| Wk 4 | @ HOU | 4.5 | 1.1 | -3.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs TB | 4.7 | 1.9 | -2.8 |
| Wk 6 | @ GB | 4.7 | 1.3 | -3.4 |
| Wk 7 | @ PHI | 3.6 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Wk 8 | vs ARI | 3.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | @ IND | 3.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 34.3 points this season, TE36. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 22% of simulated seasons. That is 3.7 a game over 9.221 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
3.7 / game
Over 9.221 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 22%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jake Ferguson #127 in 1QB and #126 in Superflex, TE11 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#127
TE11 · tier 28 · of 300
Superflex
#126
TE11 · tier 22 · of 307
- Last season 147.1 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.03
pick 122.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.01
half of simulations take him by pick 121
Draft range
9.11 - 12.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,902 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.01 in 51% of simulations
Pick 121 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 12.12, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 11.01 51% · 12.12 6% · 13.01 6% · 14.12 4% · 15.01 4%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.04 and 11.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.11 | 57% |
| 10.12 | 54% |
| 11.01 | 51% |
| 11.02 | 48% |
| 11.03 | 45% |
| 11.04 | 42% |
| 11.05 | 39% |
| 11.06 | 37% |
| 11.07 | 34% |
| 11.08 | 31% |
| 11.09 | 29% |
| 11.10 | 27% |
| 11.11 | 24% |
| 11.12 | 22% |
| 12.01 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.11-9.12 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 6% | 616 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 5% | 545 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 4% | 353 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07 | 1% | 123 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9902 simulations in which Jake Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jake Ferguson was selected in 9902 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.