HOU · Bye 8
Dalton Schultz
LMD TE3 for Week 3 · 7.8 projected Standard points · TE2 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.8 points this week, TE3. Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 74% of simulated weeks. Up 12 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE3
48th by projected points
Rest of season
TE2
44th by projected points
Projected
7.8
week 3, Standard
Top 12
41%
Top 3: 17% · Top 24: 74% at TE
Movement
↑ 12
TE15 in Week 2, TE3 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-3.49 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Strong positive+2.56 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-0.58 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Dalton Schultz the lone offensive star for Houston in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy Football Streamers Week 2: Top Options Include C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, and Trey Smack
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Dalton Schultz's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 176.9 to 153.8 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dalton Schultz by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Dalton Schultz has averaged +5.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 3.2 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 4.3 | 14.0 | +9.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 7.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 124.0 points this season, TE2. Top 3: 47% · Top 12: 94% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 7.6 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 13 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.6 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 47% · Top 12: 94% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dalton Schultz #160 in 1QB and #161 in Superflex, TE20 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#160
TE20 · tier 37 · of 297
Superflex
#161
TE20 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 136.7 pts 8.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 98% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.08
pick 127.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.05
half of simulations take him by pick 125
Draft range
10.04 - 12.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,791 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.05 in 52% of simulations
Pick 125 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 12.08, where he is available in 15% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 11.05 52% · 12.08 15% · 13.05 9% · 14.08 8% · 15.05 5%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.09 and 12.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.03 | 58% |
| 11.04 | 55% |
| 11.05 | 52% |
| 11.06 | 49% |
| 11.07 | 45% |
| 11.08 | 42% |
| 11.09 | 39% |
| 11.10 | 37% |
| 11.11 | 34% |
| 11.12 | 31% |
| 12.01 | 29% |
| 12.02 | 26% |
| 12.03 | 24% |
| 12.04 | 22% |
| 12.05 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 620 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 634 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 6% | 644 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 7% | 652 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 7% | 652 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 6% | 620 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 6% | 645 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 6% | 564 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 3% | 251 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9791 simulations in which Dalton Schultz was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 3%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 3%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 3%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dalton Schultz was selected in 9791 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.