SF · Bye 8
George Kittle
LMD TE Tier 2 for Week 9 · 9.1 projected Standard points · TE2 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.1 points this week, TE Tier 2. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.5 - 18.5 points. Top 3: 21% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 76% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 2
8.8 - 9.1 projected points
Rest of season
TE2
38th by projected points
Projected
9.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
47%
Top 3: 21% · Top 24: 76% at TE
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at TE in Week 8
Should you start George Kittle in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks George Kittle TE2 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 47% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.18 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.41 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
George Kittle hints scandalized former teammate will be refused entry into 49ers' facility as he plots NFL comeback
dailymail.com ·
-
George Kittle sees greatness in Raiders counterpart, and a problem for 49ers
Yahoo Sports ·
-
‘I plead the fifth’: George Kittle reacts to Brandon Aiyuk announcement
Yahoo Sports ·
-
George Kittle had skeptical reaction to Brandon Aiyuk’s visit to 49ers’ facility
yardbarker.com ·
-
49ers’ George Kittle pleads the 5th on Brandon Aiyuk’s expected return to facility
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to George Kittle by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games George Kittle has averaged +2.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 4.9 | 1.2 | -3.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 5.6 | 14.0 | +8.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 6.9 | 20.2 | +13.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs DEN | 8.4 | 13.0 | +4.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ SEA | 7.5 | 2.4 | -5.1 |
| Wk 6 | vs WAS | 8.7 | 12.9 | +4.2 |
| Wk 7 | @ ATL | 9.7 | 6.8 | -2.9 |
| Wk 9 | vs LV | 9.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 88.3 points this season, TE2. Top 3: 53% · Top 12: 93% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 9.3 a game over 9.933 remaining games.
Per game
9.3 / game
Over 9.933 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 53% · Top 12: 93% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has George Kittle #128 in 1QB and #127 in Superflex, TE12 at his position. Age 32.
1QB
#128
TE12 · tier 28 · of 300
Superflex
#127
TE12 · tier 22 · of 307
- Last season 133.0 pts 12.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.01
pick 109.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.12
half of simulations take him by pick 108
Draft range
8.09 - 11.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,995 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.12 in 51% of simulations
Pick 108 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 10.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 9.12 51% · 10.01 48% · 11.12 6% · 12.01 5% · 13.12 <1% · 14.01 <1% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 10.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.10 | 57% |
| 9.11 | 54% |
| 9.12 | 51% |
| 10.01 | 48% |
| 10.02 | 46% |
| 10.03 | 43% |
| 10.04 | 41% |
| 10.05 | 38% |
| 10.06 | 36% |
| 10.07 | 33% |
| 10.08 | 31% |
| 10.09 | 29% |
| 10.10 | 27% |
| 10.11 | 25% |
| 10.12 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 534 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 495 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9995 simulations in which George Kittle was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 3%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 2%
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
George Kittle was selected in 9995 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.