SF · Bye 8
George Kittle
LMD TE7 for Week 3 · 6.9 projected Standard points · TE8 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.9 points this week, TE7. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 62% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE7
72nd by projected points
Rest of season
TE8
84th by projected points
Projected
6.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
35%
Top 3: 13% · Top 24: 62% at TE
Movement
↓ 1
TE6 in Week 2, TE7 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.91 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.57 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
George Kittle will play in Week 2
USA TODAY ·
-
STATUS
George Kittle is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
George Kittle Raises Concern After 49ers Season Opener
Sports Illustrated ·
-
ADP UPDATE
George Kittle's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 89.8 to 83.2 over the last 7 days.
-
49ers' George Kittle shares heartfelt message after returning to Bay Area
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to George Kittle by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games George Kittle has averaged +2.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 4.9 | 1.2 | -3.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 5.6 | 14.0 | +8.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 6.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 98.3 points this season, TE8. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 71% · Top 24: 97% of simulated seasons. That is 6.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 2 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 71% · Top 24: 97%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has George Kittle #128 in 1QB and #127 in Superflex, TE12 at his position. Age 32.
1QB
#128
TE12 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#127
TE12 · tier 22 · of 303
- Last season 133.0 pts 12.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.01
pick 109.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.12
half of simulations take him by pick 108
Draft range
8.09 - 11.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,995 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.12 in 51% of simulations
Pick 108 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 10.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 9.12 51% · 10.01 48% · 11.12 5% · 12.01 5% · 13.12 <1% · 14.01 <1% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 10.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.10 | 57% |
| 9.11 | 54% |
| 9.12 | 51% |
| 10.01 | 48% |
| 10.02 | 46% |
| 10.03 | 43% |
| 10.04 | 41% |
| 10.05 | 38% |
| 10.06 | 36% |
| 10.07 | 33% |
| 10.08 | 31% |
| 10.09 | 28% |
| 10.10 | 27% |
| 10.11 | 24% |
| 10.12 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 6% | 578 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 545 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 515 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 479 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07 | 2% | 155 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9995 simulations in which George Kittle was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 3%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
George Kittle was selected in 9995 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.