IND · Bye 13
Tyler Warren
LMD TE8 for Week 3 · 6.9 projected Standard points · TE7 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.9 points this week, TE8. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 38% · Top 24: 62% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE8
74th by projected points
Rest of season
TE7
73rd by projected points
Projected
6.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
38%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 62% at TE
Movement
↓ 3
TE5 in Week 2, TE8 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.03 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.30 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Tyler Warren is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Tyler Warren scores late touchdown in Week 1 loss to Ravens
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Tyler Warren's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 69.4 to 74.6 over the last 7 days.
-
Dave Richard's Final Tight End Tiers: Colston Loveland in a tier all his own; Tyler Warren dips a smidge
CBS Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Warren by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Tyler Warren has averaged +1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 6.3 | 7.3 | +1.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 6.2 | 8.4 | +2.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 6.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE4. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots lower, at TE7.
Preseason market: TE4 · ADP 80.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE7 −3
LMD has him 3 spots lower than his TE4 draft price.
Week 3
TE8 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his TE4 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE4 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 102.6 points this season, TE7. Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 76% · Top 24: 97% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 3 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 76% · Top 24: 97%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Warren #38 in 1QB and #44 in Superflex, TE4 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#38
TE4 · tier 13 · of 297
Superflex
#44
TE4 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 150.5 pts 8.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.05
pick 77.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.06
half of simulations take him by pick 78
Draft range
6.02 - 8.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.06 in 53% of simulations
Pick 78 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 8.07, where he is available in 12% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 7.06 53% · 8.07 12% · 9.06 1% · 10.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.09 and 8.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.04 | 59% |
| 7.05 | 56% |
| 7.06 | 53% |
| 7.07 | 50% |
| 7.08 | 46% |
| 7.09 | 43% |
| 7.10 | 40% |
| 7.11 | 36% |
| 7.12 | 33% |
| 8.01 | 29% |
| 8.02 | 26% |
| 8.03 | 23% |
| 8.04 | 20% |
| 8.05 | 17% |
| 8.06 | 14% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.02-6.03 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 6% | 601 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 6% | 639 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 6% | 640 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 7% | 712 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 7% | 689 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 6% | 638 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 430 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08 | 1% | 139 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tyler Warren was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 3%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 3%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 3%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyler Warren was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.