SEA · Bye 11
AJ Barner
LMD TE Tier 6 for Week 9 · 4.9 projected Standard points · TE25 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.9 points this week, TE Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.3 - 10.4 points. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 42% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 6
4.4 - 5.1 projected points
Rest of season
TE25
149th by projected points
Projected
4.9
week 9, Standard
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 42% at TE
Movement
↓ 6
TE15 in Week 8, TE21 now
Should you start AJ Barner in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks AJ Barner TE21 for Week 9, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 24% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.23 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Seahawks Need to Target Tight End AJ Barner After Week 6 Game
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner celebrates scoring a touchdown
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to AJ Barner by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games AJ Barner has averaged -0.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 2.8 | 1.3 | -1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 2.1 | 6.9 | +4.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ WAS | 3.6 | 6.9 | +3.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAC | 5.0 | 1.2 | -3.8 |
| Wk 5 | vs SF | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 |
| Wk 6 | @ DEN | 4.6 | 1.6 | -3.0 |
| Wk 7 | vs KC | 4.1 | 4.6 | +0.5 |
| Wk 8 | vs CHI | 4.9 | 2.3 | -2.6 |
| Wk 9 | vs ARI | 4.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 42.3 points this season, TE25. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 43% of simulated seasons. That is 4.8 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
4.8 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 43%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has AJ Barner #120 in 1QB and #121 in Superflex, TE9 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#120
TE9 · tier 27 · of 300
Superflex
#121
TE9 · tier 21 · of 307
- Last season 121.3 pts 7.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.01
pick 169.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
13.12 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,188 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 85% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.11 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 89% |
| 15.03 | 87% |
| 15.04 | 85% |
| 15.05 | 84% |
| 15.06 | 82% |
| 15.07 | 80% |
| 15.08 | 78% |
| 15.09 | 76% |
| 15.10 | 74% |
| 15.11 | 72% |
| 15.12 | 70% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.12 | <1% | 23 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 43 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 41 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 54 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 51 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 60 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 186 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3188 simulations in which AJ Barner was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 3%
Usually taken just after
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
AJ Barner was selected in 3188 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.