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TE

SEA · Bye 11

AJ Barner

LMD TE24 for Week 3 · 3.6 projected Standard points · TE32 rest of season

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 3.6 points this week, TE24. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 30% of simulated weeks. Up 8 since Week 2.

Week 3

TE24

183rd by projected points

Rest of season

TE32

228th by projected points

Projected

3.6

week 3, Standard

Top 12

18%

Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 30% at TE

Movement

↑ 8

TE32 in Week 2, TE24 now

Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games AJ Barner has averaged +1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for AJ Barner, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs NE 2.8 1.3 -1.5
Wk 2 @ ARI 2.1 6.9 +4.8
Wk 3 @ WAS 3.6 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 48.8 points this season, TE32. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 20% of simulated seasons. That is 3.4 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 6 since the Sept. 20 board.

Per game

3.4 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 20%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has AJ Barner #120 in 1QB and #121 in Superflex, TE9 at his position. Age 24.

1QB

#120

TE9 · tier 27 · of 297

Superflex

#121

TE9 · tier 21 · of 303

  • Last season 121.3 pts 7.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 3.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.01

pick 169.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.04

half of simulations take him by pick 172

Draft range

13.12 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 3,156 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard also published: Half PPR, Full PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.04 in 85% of simulations

Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 14.10 and 15.08.

AJ Barner still on the board
PickAvailable
15.02 89%
15.03 87%
15.04 85%
15.05 83%
15.06 81%
15.07 79%
15.08 78%
15.09 76%
15.10 74%
15.11 72%
15.12 70%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which AJ Barner was selected at each pick, 13.12 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 3%, later in 2%, undrafted in 68%.
Draft position distribution for AJ Barner
PickShare of simulationsCount
13.12<1%26 of 10000 simulations
14.01<1%39 of 10000 simulations
14.02<1%48 of 10000 simulations
14.03<1%48 of 10000 simulations
14.04<1%44 of 10000 simulations
14.05<1%50 of 10000 simulations
14.06<1%36 of 10000 simulations
14.07<1%55 of 10000 simulations
14.08<1%51 of 10000 simulations
14.09<1%63 of 10000 simulations
14.10<1%65 of 10000 simulations
14.11<1%57 of 10000 simulations
14.12<1%73 of 10000 simulations
15.012%168 of 10000 simulations
15.022%185 of 10000 simulations
15.032%173 of 10000 simulations
15.042%179 of 10000 simulations
15.052%204 of 10000 simulations
15.062%190 of 10000 simulations
15.072%173 of 10000 simulations
15.082%194 of 10000 simulations
15.092%202 of 10000 simulations
15.102%172 of 10000 simulations
15.112%165 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 3156 simulations in which AJ Barner was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

AJ Barner was selected in 3156 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.