PHI · Bye 10
Dallas Goedert
LMD TE16 for Week 3 · 5.1 projected Standard points · TE16 rest of season
Doubtful
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.1 points this week, TE16. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 46% of simulated weeks. Listed doubtful. Down 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE16
123rd by projected points
Rest of season
TE16
132nd by projected points
Projected
5.1
week 3, Standard
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 46% at TE
Movement
↓ 6
TE10 in Week 2, TE16 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.92 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Zach Ertz returning to Eagles after Dallas Goedert injury
nypost.com ·
-
Eagles bringing back franchise legend Zach Ertz after Dallas Goedert injury
CBS Sports ·
-
Eagles signing Zach Ertz after Dallas Goedert injury
bundle.app ·
-
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert to miss 'a few weeks' with sprained MCL: Source
The New York Times ·
-
Sources: Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has MCL sprain - ESPN
players.bio ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dallas Goedert by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Dallas Goedert has averaged +5.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 4.6 | 19.7 | +15.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 5.2 | 0.4 | -4.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 5.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 77.5 points this season, TE16. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 83% of simulated seasons. That is 5.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Listed doubtful. Down 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
5.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 83%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dallas Goedert #149 in 1QB and #144 in Superflex, TE16 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#149
TE16 · tier 33 · of 297
Superflex
#144
TE16 · tier 26 · of 303
- Last season 155.1 pts 10.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.10
pick 117.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.08
half of simulations take him by pick 116
Draft range
9.06 - 12.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,960 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.08 in 50% of simulations
Pick 116 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 11.05, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 10.08 50% · 11.05 27% · 12.08 5% · 13.05 3% · 14.08 2% · 15.05 1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.11 and 11.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.06 | 57% |
| 10.07 | 54% |
| 10.08 | 50% |
| 10.09 | 48% |
| 10.10 | 45% |
| 10.11 | 42% |
| 10.12 | 39% |
| 11.01 | 37% |
| 11.02 | 34% |
| 11.03 | 32% |
| 11.04 | 30% |
| 11.05 | 27% |
| 11.06 | 25% |
| 11.07 | 23% |
| 11.08 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 6% | 593 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 6% | 588 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 647 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 603 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 622 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 548 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 333 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02 | 1% | 127 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9960 simulations in which Dallas Goedert was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 3%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dallas Goedert was selected in 9960 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.