PHI · Bye 10
Dallas Goedert
LMD TE Tier 5 for Week 9 · 5.8 projected Standard points · TE13 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.8 points this week, TE Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.6 - 12.3 points. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 53% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 5
5.2 - 5.9 projected points
Rest of season
TE13
101st by projected points
Projected
5.8
week 9, Standard
Top 12
27%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 53% at TE
Movement
↓ 6
TE7 in Week 8, TE13 now
Should you start Dallas Goedert in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Dallas Goedert TE13 for Week 9, just outside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 27% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.35 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.73 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.40 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.03 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Dallas Goedert and Dalton Kincaid Headline Week 9 Fantasy Football Must-Sit Tight Ends
Sports Illustrated ·
-
3 Realistic Dallas Goedert Trade Destinations as Eagles Deadline Buzz Picks Up
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Dallas Goedert has become essential to Eagles offense amid WR injuries
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Dallas Goedert Targets Soar Despite Eagles Losing Top Receivers
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Dallas Goedert takes part in practice Thursday
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dallas Goedert by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Dallas Goedert has averaged +0.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 4.6 | 19.7 | +15.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 5.2 | 0.4 | -4.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 4.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | @ JAX | 5.2 | 3.8 | -1.4 |
| Wk 6 | vs CAR | 6.4 | 6.1 | -0.3 |
| Wk 7 | vs DAL | 6.5 | 4.8 | -1.7 |
| Wk 8 | @ WAS | 6.2 | 3.2 | -3.0 |
| Wk 9 | vs NYG | 5.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 56.7 points this season, TE13. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 78% of simulated seasons. That is 5.9 a game over 8.991 remaining games.
Per game
5.9 / game
Over 8.991 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 78%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dallas Goedert #149 in 1QB and #144 in Superflex, TE16 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#149
TE16 · tier 33 · of 300
Superflex
#144
TE16 · tier 26 · of 307
- Last season 155.1 pts 10.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.10
pick 117.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.08
half of simulations take him by pick 116
Draft range
9.06 - 12.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,962 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.08 in 50% of simulations
Pick 116 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 11.05, where he is available in 28% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 10.08 50% · 11.05 28% · 12.08 5% · 13.05 3% · 14.08 2% · 15.05 1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.11 and 11.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.06 | 57% |
| 10.07 | 54% |
| 10.08 | 50% |
| 10.09 | 48% |
| 10.10 | 45% |
| 10.11 | 42% |
| 10.12 | 39% |
| 11.01 | 37% |
| 11.02 | 34% |
| 11.03 | 32% |
| 11.04 | 30% |
| 11.05 | 28% |
| 11.06 | 25% |
| 11.07 | 23% |
| 11.08 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 6% | 588 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 648 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 601 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02 | 1% | 122 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9962 simulations in which Dallas Goedert was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dallas Goedert was selected in 9962 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.