DET · Bye 6
Sam LaPorta
LMD TE Tier 4 for Week 9 · 6.9 projected Standard points · TE6 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.9 points this week, TE Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.9 - 14.1 points. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 62% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 4
6.3 - 6.9 projected points
Rest of season
TE6
68th by projected points
Projected
6.9
week 9, Standard
Top 12
35%
Top 3: 12% · Top 24: 62% at TE
Movement
↓ 3
TE3 in Week 8, TE6 now
Should you start Sam LaPorta in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Sam LaPorta TE6 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 35% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.14 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.34 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.24 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.25 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Watch Fallers: Panic over Ashton Jeanty? Buy low on Sam LaPorta and Drake London?
Sports Illustrated ·
-
NFC Notes: Luther Burden, Sam LaPorta, Bears, Lions, Vikings
yardbarker.com ·
-
National TE Day winners and losers: Davis Allen, Mason Taylor shine; Isaiah Likely, Sam LaPorta have holiday duds
Yahoo Sports ·
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Former Iowa football TE Sam LaPorta gets candid on Lions contract
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jack Campbell Sends Blunt Message About Sam LaPorta Controversy
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Sam LaPorta by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Sam LaPorta has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 5.0 | 4.8 | -0.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 6.4 | 11.2 | +4.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 7.6 | 4.4 | -3.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ ARI | 7.7 | 14.8 | +7.1 |
| Wk 7 | vs GB | 7.9 | 1.8 | -6.1 |
| Wk 8 | vs MIN | 6.5 | 3.5 | -3.0 |
| Wk 9 | @ MIA | 6.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE9. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at TE6.
Preseason market: TE9 · ADP 114.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE6 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE9 draft price.
Week 9
TE6 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE9 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE9 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 68.1 points this season, TE6. Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 68% · Top 24: 94% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 10.127 remaining games. Up 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.0 / game
Over 10.127 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 68% · Top 24: 94%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam LaPorta #122 in 1QB and #122 in Superflex, TE10 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#122
TE10 · tier 27 · of 300
Superflex
#122
TE10 · tier 21 · of 307
- Last season 86.9 pts 9.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 75% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.02
pick 85.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.01
half of simulations take him by pick 85
Draft range
6.11 - 9.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 85 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 9.12, where he is available in 3% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 8.01 53% · 9.12 3% · 10.01 2% · 11.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.06 and 8.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.11 | 60% |
| 7.12 | 57% |
| 8.01 | 53% |
| 8.02 | 50% |
| 8.03 | 46% |
| 8.04 | 42% |
| 8.05 | 39% |
| 8.06 | 36% |
| 8.07 | 32% |
| 8.08 | 29% |
| 8.09 | 26% |
| 8.10 | 24% |
| 8.11 | 21% |
| 8.12 | 19% |
| 9.01 | 17% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.11-6.12 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 6% | 594 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 6% | 641 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 7% | 708 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 8% | 766 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 7% | 663 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 7% | 673 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 6% | 580 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Sam LaPorta was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 3%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 3%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 3%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 2%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam LaPorta was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.